Putin's Apparent Shift on NATO Shouldn't Fool Anyone: ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest comments regarding Moscow's stance on NATO "ring hollow," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The U.S.-based think tank's report published on Sunday argues that Putin will likely continue attempts to "coerce NATO into abandoning its core principles" despite an apparent shift in rhetoric. ISW pointed out that the expansion of NATO was one of Moscow's chief grievances before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Finland, which shares an 830-mile border with Russia, became a NATO member in April. Putin's government had repeatedly warned its northwestern neighbor against joining the organization. Finland has since accused Moscow of attempting to destabilize the border by manufacturing a migrant crisis, while Russia has complained of "excessive" NATO troops on the border.

Putin argued in a Russian state television interview on Sunday that Finland had been "dragged" into NATO by Western allies and warned that "problems" would likely follow as a result. He also insisted that Russia is "interested in developing relations" with NATO members and has "no reason" and "no geopolitical interest" to "fight with NATO countries."

ISW's report asserts that Putin's attempt to "dismiss concerns about the threat that Russia poses to NATO" was less than convincing due to "the threats he and Kremlin pundits have recently been making against NATO member states."

"Putin's proclamation that Russia has no interest in invading NATO is also very similar to the Kremlin's persistent claims in late 2021 and early 2022—including right up to the eve of the invasion—that Russia did not intend to invade Ukraine," the report stated. "The interview was likely a deliberate attempt to reamplify the Kremlin's efforts to misrepresent the Russian military threat as an imaginary and artificial NATO invention."

"Putin's decades-long goal is to set conditions in which NATO would undermine its own global power, creating a structurally and ideologically defeated NATO that cannot resist Russia's future objectives," it continued. "Which can include territorial conquests or the establishment of Russian suzerainty over states that Moscow deems to be in its proper sphere of control."

ISW went on to say that, despite Putin's rhetoric, a Russian victory over Ukraine and "the Kremlin's repeated rhetoric about its hostile intent towards NATO" would amount to a "credible" and "costly" threat against the West that could lead to further military conflict.

Newsweek reached out for comment to Putin's office via email on Monday.

While attempting to convince Republican holdouts to back a plan to send $60 billion in additional U.S. military aid to Ukraine earlier this month, President Joe Biden warned that Putin "won't stop" if he defeats Ukraine, suggesting the Russian president would go on to attack "a NATO ally" and force members to "defend every inch of NATO territory."

Putin ally and Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov recently argued that cooperation between NATO states and the expansion of the alliance indicated that "the West is clearly preparing for a big war with Russia."