Putin's Crocodile Tears

Russian President Vladimir Putin is being accused of disingenuously calling for an end to "the tragedy" of the war in Ukraine.

Putin said that the international community should "should think about how to stop this tragedy" during a virtual summit with Group of Twenty (G20) leaders on Wednesday. Russian troops launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on Putin's orders, February 24, 2022.

During his G20 speech, the Russian president notably referred to the conflict as a "war" rather than a "special military operation," the term that he and other Kremlin officials usually use. He did not offer any strategy for ending the war but claimed that "Russia has never refused peace talks with Ukraine."

"Of course, military actions are always a tragedy," Putin said. "Specific people, specific families, and the country as a whole. And, of course, we must think about how to stop this tragedy ... I understand that this war, and the death of people, cannot but shock."

Putin blamed the war stretching to 21 months on Ukraine refusing to discuss negotiations that could end the conflict, according to Russian-state media outlet TASS.

Sarah Ashton-Cirillo, sergeant in the Armed Forces of Ukraine's Center for Research, suggested in a statement to Newsweek that Putin was not being "serious" about wanting to end the fighting.

"If Vladimir Putin is serious about seeing russia's genocidal war against the Ukrainian people come to an end, he can begin by ordering the removal of all russian troops from Ukraine and dropping his illegitimate claims to Ukrainian territory including Crimea," Ashton-Cirillo said. "Then, to show he is serious about peace, he can turn himself into the Hague to face the war crimes he has been charged with."

Jason Jay Smart, expert on post-Soviet and international politics, also argued that Putin was crying crocodile tears on Wednesday, accusing the Russian president of lying as a strategy to apply pressure on Ukraine, which could possibly be forced to cede its disputed territory in negotiations with Moscow.

"As often as Putin breathes, he lies," Smart told Newsweek. "Putin's offer is nothing but a tactic to encourage the West to pressure Ukraine into negotiations. Moscow has been explicitly clear that their objectives in Ukraine, per the overthrow of the government and occupation of territories, remains unchanged."

"Russia would use any 'negotiation' as an opportunity to shuffle around troops and equipment before eventually, after finding some pretext, re-launching its attack on Ukraine," he added.

Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia program and head of the Ukraine Forum at British think tank Chatham House, told Newsweek that Putin was seeking the "capitulation of Ukraine" and there was no reason to believe that he is willing to negotiate in "good faith."

"When listening to Putin's words, it is key to remember that we have a security operative in the Kremlin," Lutsevych said. "He unleashed the war, overstretched, underestimated Ukraine and the West, and now gears up for total war. He does not deescalate. Quite the opposite. Russia increases defence spending by 70% in 2024."

"When he [says negotiations]—we must read capitulation of Ukraine," she added. "There is no indication to believe he wants to negotiate in good faith. Long war is a survival strategy for his regime: to repress, to keep total mobilisation, to create a sense that he is irreplaceable inside Russia. Any sign of readiness to negotiate will be interpreted as weakness and embolden him further."

Mark Katz, George Mason University government and politics professor, told Newsweek that there were "two possible interpretations" of Putin's call for an end to the war, with the first being that it was "a genuine indication that Putin would like to see the war come to an end (presumably because the costs of it for him are mounting)."

"The second is that Putin hopes to create a 'peace camp' in the West which will argue that Western military assistance to Ukraine must now be curtailed to 'meet Putin half way' and end the conflict," he continued. "These two interpretations, of course, are not mutually exclusive: Putin may want to end the war, but wants to do so on terms favorable to Russia."

Katz also said the Putin explicitly referring to the Ukraine conflict as a "war" was "significant," while pointing out that the Russian president "can say things that others in Russia cannot."

"It will be even more significant if other officials and the main Russia media also start using the term 'war,'" Katz said.

Pressure for Putin to end the war could be mounting at home, with a poll released last week finding that 48 percent of Russians want their country to negotiate peace with Ukraine. Only 39 percent said that they were in favor of Russia continuing the conflict.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly indicated that he is unwilling to negotiate a peace deal that would include Kyiv relinquishing any of its pre-war territory. Zelensky has instead demanded that Russia return all occupied lands as a condition for a ceasefire, including Crimea—which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014.