Quora Questions are part of a partnership between Newsweek and Quora, through which we'll be posting relevant and interesting answers from Quora contributors throughout the week. Read more about the partnership here. Answer from Drew Smith, PhD in Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology:
Which Republican House members are vulnerable in the 2018 election cycle following the vote on the AHCA? Quite a few. There are two big factors at play here. One is that the President's party typically loses seats in Congress in the midterm elections, and this President is uniquely unpopular at this point in his term.
The other factor is the generic Congressional ballot. It's natural to think that Nov 2018 is a long way off and to dismiss this sort of polling as way too premature. After all, a lot can happen and normal people aren't really paying attention to politics anyway.
But these polls have surprising predictive power, even at 18 months out. Here is the relationship:
From Don't Just Look At Trump's Approval Rating To Judge His First 100 Days
There are some outliers to be sure, but this is a pretty strong correlation. And the President's party tends to underperform this correlation.
Where are the polls right now?
From RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2018 Generic Congressional Vote
The average is +6% for the Democrats. Using the chart above, this predicts a 7–8% margin for the Dems in the 2018 election. Because of both natural and gerrymandered disadvantages, this is just about the margin that Democrats need in order to break even in the House.
That's the generic answer. Here in Colorado, Mike Coffman is definitely on the endangered species list. He won by 8% in 2016, but Clinton carried his district by 9%. He was given a hall pass to vote "no" on the AHCA, but his constituents are riled up anyway.
A lot could happen between now and Nov 2018, of course, but how likely is it that events will make the President and his party more popular? The health care debate will be in the news for months and this law is not likely to become more beloved over the course of that debate. Same goes for the Republican's other top priority, tax cuts for the wealthy. Their leader is clearly incompetent at the business of governing and is sure to commit more blunders. About the only thing he has done that is popular so far is to lob missiles at Syria. Absent a popular war, it is very likely that the President and his party will be even more unpopular in November 2018 than they are now, and their chances in the House will suffer accordingly.
Which Republican House members are vulnerable in the 2018 election cycle following the vote on the AHCA? originally appeared on Quora - the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions:
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