GOP Base Has Shrunk Compared to Last Presidential Election

The number of people who describe themselves as Republican has slightly declined since the last presidential election.

The polling firm Gallup, which tracks party affiliation monthly, says that those identifying as Republicans has shrunk by two percentage points since 2020. In February 2020, 30 percent of those Gallup polled said they were Republicans, while 29 percent considered themselves Democrats.

As of February 2024, when the latest data is available, 28 percent say they are Republicans, while 30 percent say they are Democrats, showing Republican's base declining. Newsweek contacted the Republican National Committee (RNC) by email to comment on this story.

There will be a rematch between Trump and Democratic incumbent Joe Biden in November's presidential election after the two politicians both secured enough primary votes. With polls showing that the election will be tight, party affiliation is one indicator of how Biden and Trump might perform when voters head to the ballot.

Todd Landman, professor of political science at the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham in the U.K., told Newsweek that both Republicans and Democrats had lost votes to independents in the last few years.

"There has been a decline in overall party affiliation over the last 20 years, with a significant rise in independents," Landman said.

"Party affiliation is slightly higher on average for Democrats than Republicans, while the combination of strong party identifiers and their leaning affiliates favours Democrats over Republicans.

"The stakes are thus high for both parties in the runup to the November election, and both parties need to draw from the independents to assure victory. The Biden campaign has so far sought to reach out to these independents, while the Trump campaign appears to be retrenching to the solid base of supporters, which mathematically may be the wrong strategy to win the election."

Meanwhile, Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek that Trump had turned people off from party politics.

"Trump has been amazingly successful in dominating the Republican Party since his first electoral ride down the escalator in Trump Tower in 2015, not least in making the RNC part of the family business recently," Shanahan said.

"His MAGA base remains large, and largely unquestioning, and guarantees him 30 to 35 percent of the vote come November. But the impact of Trump on politics has been a turn-off for many millions of Americans, and the traditional parties seem weaker, and less of a draw, than for decades.

"While the Trump GOP has a very strong core, it's not the traditional Main Street Republicans of the pre-Tea Party era. The party now appeals to wealthy beneficiaries of his economic policies as well as to those who've seen themselves on the outside of politics for decades. It's a loose and odd alliance that has lost much of America's centre," Shanahan said.

"While Biden will be looking to win these centrist votes, the Democrats have nothing to crow about. Their rather anaemic showing recently has hardly lifted the numbers who consider themselves Dems. While there are fewer staunch Republicans on the scene right now, there's no guarantee at all those votes are set to turn blue. Many right-leaning folk will hold their noses and vote GOP anyway. Many more may just decide to sit out November's opportunity to play their part in the democratic process," Shanahan added.

Meanwhile, changes are coming at the RNC, the GOP's governing body, in a bid to shore up more support ahead of November's elections.

Upon being elected as co-chair of the RNC last week, Lara Trump said: "Everything I do at this committee will have one focus: reelecting Donald Trump, flipping the Senate, and expanding the House this November."

Lara Trump also outlined her plans to secure more donations to the RNC in a Wednesday interview with Newsmax. She said: "I think that the change in leadership at the RNC has really inspired a lot of people to give. This past weekend, we had our best fundraising weekend since 2020."

Update, 3/19/24, 8:30 a.m. ET: The headline on this article was updated.