Republicans' Chances of Flipping Senate in 2024 Election

Republicans have expressed significant confidence in their ability to wrestle back control of the Senate in the 2024 election, viewing the map of seats up for grabs in November as one of the most favorable to the GOP in many years.

"The good news is: We have the best map in a decade," Senator Steve Daines, a Montana Republican who leads the Senate Republicans' campaign committee, said last week at a meeting of The Ripon Society. "It's a chance for us to pick up the United States Senate," he said.

Thirty-four Senate seats will be on ballots on Election Day later this year, but only a handful of these are viewed by most analysts as seriously competitive. Due to the clear partisan lean of most states, only a few seats every cycle appear to be real pickup possibilities for both parties.

Given the Democratic Caucuses very narrow control of the Senate, even just a couple seats flipping for Republicans would be enough to shift control of the legislative chamber. Currently, the Democratic Caucus, which includes three independents, has 51 members compared to the Republicans' 49 members.

This year, there are five Senate seats—in Arizona, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia—which appear to be the most likely to flip in 2024. All of these are currently held by Democrats, with the exception of Arizona. The southwestern state's Senator Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat, but has identified as an independent since the end of 2022. She continues to caucus with the Democrats.

"I think the Senate majority is the Republicans to lose," Jason Cabel Roe, a Republican strategist told Newsweek. However, he said he believes the GOP made such a blunder in 2022 by nominating "flawed candidates that cost us winnable races."

Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, made a similar point. "The Democratic Senate majority is precarious but it was in 2022 and the Republicans failed to seal the deal. We should wait until we know the identity of the GOP nominees before we pass judgement," he told Newsweek.

Here's a closer look how things stand in the five states where Republicans appear best positioned to win.

Arizona

One big factor that remains up in the air for the Arizona race is whether the incumbent, Sinema, plans to seek reelection. During her past Senate term, Sinema has become known as a bipartisan negotiator, but alienated many Democrats by helping to block several policy priorities of President Joe Biden's administration. After she announced that she'd decided to become an independent, many Democrats were further outraged.

As a result, she would be facing a Democratic challenger as well as a Republican opponent if she runs for reelection. She may also choose not to seek another term, but as Arizona is a close swing state—it's anyone's guess whether the Democrat or Republican would win either way. The Cook Political Report currently rates the contest as a "toss up."

Former GOP gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego have both thrown their hats in the ring for the seat. A survey conducted from January 5 to 6 by Public Policy Polling and the Replace Sinema PAC showed Gallego at 36 percent, Lake at 35 percent and Sinema in a distant third at 17 percent.

In a two-way contest between Gallego and Lake, the GOP contender was narrowly ahead by 1 point. Gallego had the support of 45 percent of respondents whereas Lake was at 46 percent. The poll included 590 Arizona voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Montana

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester may be facing an uphill battle in deep-red Montana. Former President Donald Trump beat Biden by more than 16 points in the western state in 2020. But Tester has been accustomed to carrying the state by relatively narrow margins since he first won there in 2006. During his last reelection bid in 2018, while Trump was president, the Democrat beat his Republican opponent by about 3.5 points.

Like Arizona, Cook Political Report currently rates Montana's contest as a "toss up." A poll carried out from Emerson College in October showed Tester narrowly ahead of GOP contender Tim Sheehy, who has been endorsed by Daines. The survey showed Tester with 39 percent support and Sheehy backed by 35 percent, however those results demonstrate that a large number of voters remain undecided. The survey included 447 registered Montana voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 points.

Ohio

Similar to Tester, incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running in a state that has become red in recent elections. Trump defeated Biden in Ohio by about 8 points in 2020. And Cook Political Reports rates the contest as a "toss up."

However, the most recent polling from November still suggests that Brown remains favored to win. The Emerson College/Nexstar/WJW (Cleveland) survey polled matchups between Brown and three potential Republican opponents, Matt Dolan, Frank LaRose and Bernie Moreno. Brown came out on top in each head-to-head matchup.

Against Moreno, Brown was at 42 percent compared to the Republican's 32 percent. The Democrat was up by 5 points against LaRose, 41 to 36 percent. The closest contest was between Brown and Dolan at 41 to 38 percent, a 3 point margin. The survey included 1,000 registered Ohio voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

Pennsylvania

Democrats chances of holding their Senate seat in Pennsylvania appear somewhat more secure, as Cook Political Report rates the race "lean Democrat." Incumbent Senator Bob Casey also appears to be narrowly ahead in a most recent poll.

The survey carried out by Susquehanna Polling & Research from January 15 to 21 showed Casey leading Republican challenger David McCormick by nearly 4 points. The Democrat had the support of 45.9 percent of respondents and McCormick was backed by 42.1 percent. However, 9.3 percent were unsure and 2.7 percent said they'd support a different candidate. The poll included 745 likely Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.

West Virginia

Most analysts expect West Virginia's Senate seat to flip red in November. Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has decided against seeking reelection and was viewed by many as the only Democrat who could possibly win in the deep-red state. Additionally, the state's popular Republican Governor Jim Justice is running for the seat and widely expected to win. Cook Political Report rates the race as "solid Republican."

"The fact is, the GOP only needs two seats and with Manchin's retirement, West Virginia is as good as over," Roe told Newsweek.

What About Texas?

Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is also running for reelection in Texas this year, sparking Democratic excitement about the possibility of winning his seat. While Democrats have performed better in Texas in recent years, the state has still remained red in recent national elections.

A poll by Emerson College/Nexstar has given Democrats hope that they can possibly win this year. The survey showed Democratic challengers Representative Colin Allred and Texas state Senator Roland Gutierrez neck-and-neck with Cruz.

The incumbent Republican was polling at 42 percent among likely voters in a hypothetical matchup with Allred, who had 40 percent support. In a matchup with Gutierrez, 41 percent said they would vote for Cruz and 40 percent said Gutierrez. The survey was conducted from January 13 to 15 and surveyed 1,315 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

But many analysts still view Texas as unlikely to flip, particularly in the context of the ongoing border crisis and Biden's unpopularity on the issue.

"Texas is a Democrat fantasy. If it ever was in play, and I never think it is, the immigration crisis at the border takes it off the table," Roe told Newsweek.