Republicans Dealt Huge Blow in Ohio Election

Ohio voters dealt a blow to Republicans on Tuesday by defeating an effort to make it more difficult to amend the state constitution, in what is seen as a win for abortion-rights supporters.

State Issue 1 was projected as defeated Tuesday night by the Associated Press, with about 40 percent of the vote counted. At the time of projection, nearly 60 percent were against the proposal, and about 40 percent in favor.

If enacted, the plan would have raised the threshold to enact proposed constitutional changes from a simple majority of voters to 60 percent. This would make it more difficult for voters to circumvent the will of the state Legislature and the governor to enact citizen-led policy changes, especially in a state with a history of close elections.

It also marks a victory for Ohio reproductive rights advocates, who saw Tuesday's vote as an early test of voter attitudes toward abortion access. A ballot initiative, scheduled for the November election, aims to permanently enshrine into state law every individual's "right to make and carry out one's reproductive decisions."

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Ohio celebrated the defeat, posting on X, formerly Twitter: "BREAKING: Ohioans stood up and defeated Issue 1. Thank you to everyone who showed up, made calls, knocked doors, voted, and showed lawmakers the real meaning of WE THE PEOPLE!"

The vote could also present an early test for Ohio Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose amid his bid to unseat Ohio's popular Democratic U.S. senator, Sherrod Brown, in 2024.

LaRose, who entered a crowded Republican field for their party's nomination last month, broke with a long-running precedent of neutrality among state officers to actively campaign for State Issue 1. He also lobbied for an August special election to implement it just months after leading a campaign in the state Legislature to end the practice of August elections due to their traditionally high cost and low turnout rate.

Though he had denied Issue 1 was about abortion, he later owned up to it during remarks at a Lincoln Day dinner in May, telling attendees that the August vote was "100 percent about keeping a radical pro-abortion amendment out of our Constitution."

Brown, meanwhile, was on the ground in Ohio actively campaigning against the ballot measure, including canvassing in places like traditionally contentious Montgomery County, to get the word out.

"This special election is about powerful people trying to get more power—at Ohioans' expense," Brown wrote in a tweet Monday night. "Vote NO tomorrow, Ohio."

To some degree, Tuesday's vote was to be expected. Across the country, efforts to change the voter thresholds required to pass citizen-led legislation have rarely been successful. And prior to the special election, voter enthusiasm was high, with some analysts finding significant early vote turnout among likely opponents of State Issue 1.

And while polling by YouGov/Scripps News at the beginning of the summer showed as many voters uncertain about their position as there were in favor and against the measure, some analysts with election handicappers like Split Ticket entered Tuesday predicting that a 15- to 20-point loss for State Issue 1 would be more likely than its passage.

One year earlier, two of Ohio's neighboring states—deep-red Kentucky and the traditional battleground of Michigan—voted to codify abortion into their constitutions, while a previous effort to outlaw abortion via constitutional amendment in the conservative state of Kansas was defeated by a 20-point margin last year.

According to exit polling in the 2022 midterm elections, most voters—including a majority of independents—believed abortion should continue to be legal, and was determined to be a driving factor in a large portion of voters' decision-making. Most voters last November considered abortion to be a defining factor in their decision to vote, according to polls, ranking behind only inflation in terms of importance in surveys conducted by CNN, ABC News, CBS News and the Washington Post.

Ohio, despite its reputation as a historic battleground for control of the White House and Congress, appeared to be leaning in a similar direction. Of four publicly released polls about voters' attitudes toward the November ballot measure, well over 50 percent of voters supported enshrining abortion protections in the state Constitution. And though one poll by USA Today/Suffolk University showed roughly one-third of Ohio voters opposing enshrined abortion protections, a June 22 poll of 500 likely voters conducted by Scripps News/YouGov found just 23 percent of Ohio voters were opposed to the measure, compared to 58 percent in favor.

While centered on Ohio, Tuesday's vote could also represent an early indicator for the salience of the abortion issue in other states. As election day began in Ohio, the Washington Post reported that several abortion rights groups, including the ACLU and NARAL, were launching a bid to enshrine abortion protections into the Arizona Constitution, setting the table for a battle over reproductive rights in the hotly contested purple state on the 2024 ballot.

And earlier this year, abortion rights activists in the once-competitive state of Florida unfurled their own signature-gathering effort to get a million voters to sign a petition to put reproductive rights on the 2024 ballot and thwart a recently enacted ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy that Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law. However, the Florida groups would then need at least 60 percent of the vote—the threshold to change the Constitution there—in order to enact those protections.