Ohio voters, including independents, broadly support enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution, according to a new poll, a troubling sign for Republicans ahead of the 2024 elections.
Abortion rights became a critical issue for millions of voters across the United States after the Supreme Court's ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade, the landmark case that legalized abortion on a federal level. Outrage over the decision helped fuel Democratic victories in key elections and blocked the "red wave" Republicans hoped to ride to victory during the 2022 midterms. Several states, including some with conservative leans, have voted to protect abortion rights after the Dobbs decision.
Ohio, a traditionally competitive state that has drifted toward Republicans, could be among the next states to vote to enshrine abortion rights. Reproductive rights advocates have proposed amendments to the state constitution that would add language guaranteeing abortion rights.
A Suffolk University/USA Today poll released Tuesday found widespread support for that amendment in a troubling sign for Republicans, who have opposed the expansion of reproductive rights.
Overall, the poll found that roughly 58 percent of respondents said they supported the amendment guaranteeing abortion rights. Only 32 percent said they would vote against it, and 10 percent remained undecided.
Independent voters, who are likely to be critical to Republicans' path to victory, supported the amendment by an even larger margin. According to the poll, 68 percent of independents support enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution, while 22 percent oppose doing so and 10 percent are undecided.
Even as a significant percentage of independent voters support an abortion rights amendment, many of these voters also backed former President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. President Joe Biden won a slim majority of 46 percent of independents to Trump's 44 percent, according to the poll.
As abortion rights remain a key issue, these voters could play a pivotal role in the 2024 election in the former swing state as they choose between Republicans and Democrats, who have vowed to protect abortion rights.
Dan Birdsong, a professor of political science at the University of Dayton, told Newsweek Monday that Republicans should be concerned about these polling numbers because they risk the perception of being extreme on abortion among an electorate that is generally in favor of reproductive rights.
"Democrats could use it to say, especially for those who have stated positions or support for what would be termed as extreme positions, it could translate over for greater support for Democrats," he said, noting that Democrats still have to walk a fine line to avoid the perception that they are also extreme on the issue.
He said the GOP's longstanding positioning of abortion may make it more difficult for Republicans to reconcile their differences on abortion with independent voters. He said they could shift toward a position of being personally anti-abortion but against government intervention, but that voters may not trust them.
"It's very hard to reconcile where they've been with where they may want to move," he said.
Although Republicans are viewed as favored to win the Buckeye State on a presidential level, Ohio's Senate race in which Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown will face off against a Republican rival is viewed as more competitive.
Birdsong said Brown could use abortion as a way of dividing the electorate in his favor, though a more moderate candidate like businessman Matt Dolan winning the primary could neutralize the abortion issue.
"When it comes down to their campaign communications, it's going to be heavily dependent on the candidate that Senator Brown is running against," he said.
When reached by Newsweek, Ohio GOP spokesman Dan Lusheck pointed to the state party's recent electoral success, even after the Roe decision.
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, a Republican who Lusheck described as "one of the most pro-life governors in the nation," won reelection with more than 62 percent of the vote last November. Meanwhile, Senator J.D. Vance eked out a win in a competitive U.S. Senate race against former Representative Tim Ryan.
"For decades, Ohio lawmakers have passed pro-life legislation and won historic supermajorities in both chambers. Like the rest of their agenda, Democrats' obsession with late-term, taxpayer-funded abortions is extreme and their candidates will continue to be rejected by Ohio voters," Lusheck wrote.
Ohio's Abortion Referendum Faces Challenge in August
The abortion referendum will face one other challenge, according to USA Today. Ohio voters on August 8 will vote on whether to change the state law regarding Constitutional amendments. Currently, an amendment needs only 50 percent plus one to pass, but next month's measure would change that to 60 percent.
The 58 percent support in the newly-released poll does not hit that threshold, though 10 percent still remains undecided. The poll surveyed 500 registered voters from July 9 to 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is running for Senate, is expected to say on Tuesday whether the petition in favor of the referendum received enough signatures to appear on the ballot, USA Today reported.
Several states have voted to maintain or guarantee abortion rights since Roe was overturned. States that backed Biden in the 2020 election such as California, Vermont and Michigan all easily passed these measures, but several conservative states have also supported abortion rights.
Voters in Kansas and Kentucky voted to guarantee abortion rights in those states, while those in Montana also voted down an anti-abortion proposal.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
