Ret. U.S. General Outlines 'Challenges' Facing Ukraine's Spring Offensive

The Ukrainian military is likely to face several challenges as it prepares for a spring offensive against Russia, according to an assessment from retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling.

As the war in Ukraine heads into its 14th month in April, several reports have surfaced of a planned offensive from Ukrainian troops to regain territory that has largely been held at a standstill by Russian forces for months. Kyiv's counteroffensive in the fall successfully regained large swaths of territory from Moscow's occupation, including the cities of Kherson and Kharkiv.

Hertling, who previously served as commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe, shared in a Twitter thread on Thursday, however, that there could be several challenges that Ukrainian troops face when attempting another successful offensive campaign, including "massive casualties" suffered by Kyiv's troops.

"Just like RU [Russian troops] had to regenerate their forces back in April after early defeats, UA [Ukrainian troops] also must regenerate," Hertling wrote. "That's hard. And Ukraine's force—mostly new recruits—will now have to fight OFFENSIVE vs defensive battles, w/new equipment. That's harder still."

Both U.S. and European officials have estimated that Ukrainian troops have faced as many as 120,000 casualties since the start of Russia's invasion in February 2022, reported The Washington Post this month. Meanwhile, officials estimate Russia's total casualties have reached up to 200,000 troops.

"It will be unpopular to say this, but I will: The UA is good & is combat savvy. But like RU at the beginning of the war, they're not 10 feet tall," Hertling continued on Twitter. "They must now execute large scale missions: Deliberate attacks & combined arms breaches. Very tough!"

"In the offense, UA's army will be both terrain (regaining lost ground) & force (killing Russians) oriented, depending on *where* they strike," he added, providing a list of steps that Kyiv's troops will have to take "to execute very tough offensive missions."

"Really tough tasks for a force that's already been fighting a year+," Hertling said.

The retired general also noted that Russia will likely defend its current positions against a Ukrainian offensive "from prepared positions," adding that Moscow will likely "willingly sacrifice soldiers" in their counteroffensives.

"UA will regain additional ground, but the spring offensive won't be a 'war winner,'" Hertling concluded. "UKR [Ukraine] will need more support."

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Tuesday told the Senate Committee on Armed Forces that he believes Ukraine will have "a very good chance of success" against Russian troops in what he anticipates will be "an increase in fighting in the spring" between the two forces.

However, as Newsweek previously reported, Ukraine's success may likely come down to its capacity to utilize an "insufficient supply of Western weaponry." George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War told Newsweek that there is a "huge disparity" between the type of aid Ukraine is receiving from Western allies and what its forces actually need.

"The problem is that we haven't actually given the Ukrainians enough for them to demonstrate what they're really capable of," Barros said.

Newsweek has reached out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's office via email for comment.