Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is hurting Joe Biden's chances of reelection more than Donald Trump's in five key battleground states.
According to a new Emerson College/The Hill poll, Biden is trailing Trump marginally in the states of Arizona (48 percent to 44 percent), Georgia (47 percent to 44 percent), Michigan (45 percent to 44 percent), Nevada (45 percent to 44 percent), North Carolina (47 percent to 42 percent), Pennsylvania (47 percent to 45 percent) and Wisconsin (47 percent to 45 percent) in a two-person race.
When third-party candidates like RFK Jr. are included, the poll revealed that more support is pulled away from Biden than from Trump in the states of Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, support is drawn evenly from each candidate in the states of Arizona and Michigan.
Emerson College surveyed 1000 registered voters between April 25 and 29. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Newsweek contacted representatives for Biden by email for comment.
The Context
In March, Biden and Trump won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Democratic and Republican nominations in the 2024 presidential election. Thus far, polls have shown that the results will be tight as the pair are statistically tied in most polls or are enjoying marginal leads.
Swing states are important because due to the Electoral College system of voting, they may determine the winner of the election.
What We Know
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer the third child of former U.S. Senator Robert Kennedy and his wife, Ethel, is running as an independent candidate in the 2024 election after initially running as a Democrat.
Views
Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, previously told Newsweek that people shouldn't read too much into polls at this stage of the campaign.
"Polls are so variable at this point that the only consistent insight we can glean from them is that Biden and Trump are neck and neck—not only nationally but in key swing states," he said. "Trying to read too much into any one poll, or even set of polls, five months out from the election is a fool's errand."
What's Next?
The presidential election will take place on November 5.
Update 4/30/24, 10:32 a.m. ET: This story was updated with additional information and background.
Uncommon Knowledge
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About the writer
Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and ... Read more
