Ron DeSantis—Remember Him?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign appears to be floundering even as he plans to spend millions of dollars in ads in the early voting state of Iowa.

DeSantis had previously been seen as the greatest threat to former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination but political scientists who spoke to Newsweek suggested he now had little chance of beating Trump.

For months before his formal entry into the race, DeSantis garnered significant media attention amid speculation that he was going to run for the nomination, while some conservatives saw the Florida governor as an alternative to Trump.

However, missteps early in the campaign—including a bungled Twitter livestream announcement of his intention to run on May 24—led to questions about his ability to win.

A High-Risk Strategy

When DeSantis entered the GOP race in May, he was the first major rival to former President Trump to openly challenge him. That decision may have been a mistake, according to Paul Quirk, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia in Canada.

"DeSantis opted for a high-risk, high-reward strategy in becoming Trump's first serious rival for the nomination," Quirk told Newsweek.

"If Republican voters had been ready to move on from Trump, DeSantis would have had a head start in the competition. But they were not. If they eventually do abandon Trump, it will be too late for DeSantis to make himself the favored successor to him," he said.

Quirk said that DeSantis had "tried to position himself as the legitimate heir to that support. But many months of Trump's constant attacks have moved him to the back of the line for any such inheritance."

Trump, Murdoch and a Reset

The former president has frequently criticized DeSantis, telling a rally in July that the governor has "no personality" and calling him "highly overrated." Trump has also focused on DeSantis' previous support for reducing Social Security and Medicare spending.

Trump has also repeatedly taken credit for DeSantis' political career, noting that he endorsed DeSantis in the 2018 Florida gubernatorial primary.

Polling numbers also suggest the governor's support has declined amid Trump's attacks. According to RealClearPolitics polling average, DeSantis had 20.9 percent support in the GOP primary on May 24, compared to Trump's 54.9 percent.

As of October 15, DeSantis stood at 13.1 percent in the same measure, while Trump had 58.1 percent support.

The governor has also faced criticism from other conservatives. In July, Rolling Stone reported that Fox News' billionaire owner Rupert Murdoch—a media mogul and key figure in conservative media—was souring on DeSantis. The idea that Murdoch was abandoning DeSantis was later seized upon by the Trump campaign.

The DeSantis campaign cut a third of its staff—38 people—in July in a move that appeared to shock political experts, including veteran Republican strategist Ed Rollins, who criticized the decision on CNN and said DeSantis "makes dumb moves."

The DeSantis campaign has since been attempting a reset in an effort to get back on track. That reset will include a $2 million ad buy in Iowa, which holds the first-in-the-nation GOP caucus.

The governor's campaign is the first to reserve airtime in Iowa but that may not be enough to beat Trump, particularly given the state of the campaign's finances.

The DeSantis campaign raised $11.2 million in the last quarter—down from $20 million it raised during the first six weeks of the campaign. Filings show that the campaign has spent nearly all of that $11.2 million, including $1.5 million on private jets. The last charge for a private jet was in September.

Newsweek has reached out to DeSantis' office via email about the campaign's finances.

Many of those plane journeys involved going back and forth to Iowa, where DeSantis is hoping for a win in the GOP caucus in February that would give him much needed momentum.

The Iowa ad buy is significant as the DeSantis campaign had $5 million cash on hand at the beginning of October.

The former president recently suggested on his Truth Social site that DeSantis would soon drop out of the race because of financial difficulties and falling poll numbers.

"Ron DeSanctimonious has the Poll numbers of a wounded bird falling from the sky. I am up on him by 57 points, and going higher," Trump wrote.

Trump added: "He will SOON be out of money and dropping out of the race for President. After having single handidly gotten him elected Governor, with no thanks or glory, it has been a beautiful thing to watch. Good luck Ron!"

A Lack of Charisma

DeSantis' failure to gain more traction in the Republican race may be due to his personality and campaigning style, according to Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, co-editor of The Trump Presidency: From Campaign Trail to World Stage.

"Governor Ron DeSantis hasn't gone away, but at the moment it's fair to say he's going nowhere, stuck in the midst of a pack of GOP challengers who are providing very little challenge to Donald Trump," Shanahan told Newsweek.

"DeSantis was supposed to be the breakthrough: the populist conservative without the Trump baggage. But to be a successful political candidate, you need charisma and a compelling storyline. Trump has both in shovelfuls. DeSantis? Not so much," he said.

Shanahan suggested that if DeSantis had declared his candidacy sooner, some of his problems could have been avoided.

"Officially joining the race late hurt DeSantis, giving his opponents ample opportunity to pile in on his reticence—especially Trump who turned his ire on the Florida governor early and has continued to gaslight around Social Security and Medicare, two issues close to the hearts of MAGA voters and the wider senior GOP vote," he said.

Paul Quirk told Newsweek that DeSantis' troubles "have reflected his own glaring weaknesses as a candidate."

"He is not attractive or compelling as a speaker," Quirk said. "While aping Trump's authoritarian style, he has none of the charisma that Trump has for many voters. He makes ludicrous mistakes—like picking a fight with Disney and devoting endless attention to culture-war issues that most voters have never heard of."

No Momentum Against Trump

The idea that DeSantis could defeat Trump in the Republican primary may have been fanciful to begin with, according to Thomas Gift, founding director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London.

"To say Ron DeSantis is floundering now is to imply he had any momentum to begin with. His campaign, simply put, was a flop from even before he officially threw his hat in the ring," Gift told Newsweek.

"Of course, it was probably destined to happen," he said. "Even if DeSantis had run the perfect campaign—and he certainly hasn't—it's hard to imagine anyone dethroning Trump," he added.

Gift said that DeSantis "is just the latest in a long line of Republican presidential hopefuls, lauded by 'the establishment' and 'donor class,' who turned out to be utterly incapable of resonating with rank-and-file GOP voters."

Saving the Campaign

Presidential elections are not easy to predict and with a leading candidate who is facing trial in multiple jurisdictions, the GOP primary could throw up some surprises.

"At this stage, DeSantis is reliant on two things to remain relevant in the race: a significant upswing following the third primary debate in Miami next month that will enable his campaign to catch fire in Iowa, and a collapse of the Trump campaign under the weight of legal enmity," Mark Shanahan told Newsweek.

The DeSantis campaign is focusing on Iowa and the next debate will take place on November 8. Trump declined to attend the two previous debates.

"For a disciplined and reasonably resourced campaign, the first objective still appears plausible," Shanahan said.

"The second is a real Hail Mary," he said. "Trump has turned political victimhood into an art and intense money-raising opportunity. Everyone loves a courtroom drama except, perhaps, Ron DeSantis."

Paul Quirk expressed little optimism about DeSantis' chances, telling Newsweek: "Whatever opportunity for success DeSantis had in the race for the Republican nomination—and it probably was never great—he has blown it, and he won't get a second chance."

Newsweek has contacted the DeSantis campaign for comment via email.