Russia and Belarus Move Closer Together

Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a further step to integrate Belarusian economy with Russia's after signing deals with Alexander Lukashenko, amid concerns about whether he might call on his closest ally to help him in the war he started.

Lukashenko, who is the only post-Soviet president Belarus has known, has relied on Putin to remain in power, following elections in 2020 widely seen as fraudulent and which were followed by a brutal crackdown. Newsweek emailed the Belarusian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday for comment.

Belarus has become a key ally in Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with its territory used by Putin to launch troops and aircraft into the country, although Lukashenko has refrained from Minsk taking a more-direct role in the war. Lukashenko announced last month that Russian nuclear weapons, which are controlled by Moscow, had arrived in Belarus.

Putin hailed the countries' "fraternal peoples" in signing with his Belarusian counterpart economic and technological deals on Monday aimed at beefing up the supranational agreement between the countries known as the Union State.

Putin said in St. Petersburg's Konstantinovsky Palace that there was "a genuine alliance and strategic partnership between Russia and Belarus," as the pair announced deals on trade, nuclear energy and scientific exploration in the North and South Poles. They also signed a decree to create a joint state media company for Russia and Belarus.

The U.S.-based independent think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday that the meeting was "advancing the Kremlin's efforts to further integrate Belarus into the Union State structure," which Lukashenko "has previously resisted."

But the fallout of the Wagner Group's armed rebellion against Putin in June 2020, which Lukashenko reportedly played a role in mediating, and the death of Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin "may have hindered Lukashenko's ability to resist further Union State integration efforts," the ISW said.

The Wagner group of mercenaries led by Prigozhin who were key to Russia's war effort seized military facilities in Rostov-on-Don before marching on Moscow in the biggest challenge to Putin's authority during his presidency.

Belarusian journalist Hanna Liubakova, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Newsweek that many of her compatriots oppose the idea of integration that would make Belarus a part of Russia.

"However, in recent years, attitudes toward Russia have become more positive due to the European Union discontinuing collaboration with Belarus, a consequence of sanctions and other restrictions.

"The inability to easily travel to the EU, halted economic cooperation, especially in sanctioned areas, has led Belarusians to view Russia more favorably, even if they may not be inherently pro-Russian. They recognize Russia as their country's essential economic partner."

Monday's agreements between Putin and Lukashenko followed a warning by Bohdan Krotevych, acting commander of the National Guard of Ukraine's Azov Brigade, about "the possibility of Belarus entering the war."

Reporting his comments, Ukrainian Telegram channel Politika Strani said Belarus's involvement could mean Kyiv's forces facing 100,000 more troops, posing a serious problem for Ukraine, given the current balance of forces at the front.

However, Liubakova said there was no evidence Putin was seeking Belarusian troops for the war. "Such a move could potentially lead to instability in Belarus, given that an overwhelming majority of the population, up to 97 percent, opposes the deployment of Belarusian forces to Ukraine," Liubakova said, although this could change if Russia declares full mobilization.

In such a scenario, Russia may seek support from its loyal ally, she added, and Minsk might be unable to decline such a request, given the Lukashenko regime's reliance on the Kremlin.