Putin's Forces 'Guaranteed to Lose' Ukraine War: Former Russian Commander

Former Russian commander Strelkov Igor Ivanovich, also known as Igor Girkin, listed on Friday 12 points on how Russian forces are "guaranteed" to lose their war in Ukraine.

"The discrediting of hostilities in the eyes of the broad masses of the population and the demoralization of the Armed Forces fighting and suffering losses for no reason will be achieved as soon as possible," Girkin wrote as part of several posts on his Telegram channel titled "12 points how we guaranteed to lose the war."

Girkin has been a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine and has long condemned Russian troops' performance since the invasion began in February 2022.

In his recent predictions and assessments of the war, he outlined the failures of Russian forces in taking control of Ukrainian territories and suggested ways in which troops should have acted to achieve gains in the Eastern European country.

He said on Friday that showing Kyiv's allies that Russia is ready to negotiate over the war will demonstrate "the weakness and uncertainty of the 'elites' in the Russian Federation," escalating the conflict and causing more intervention from the West.

"It is especially and critically important not to change the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Foreign Intelligence Service, the 5th Service of the FSB of Russia, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, as well as political advisers on the 'Ukrainian' line and curators of the military industry. Our old cadres, proven over decades, are the key to our military defeat," he wrote.

He continued: "In no case should the borders be closed so that...during the next waves of 'mobilization' as many young people liable for military service as possible could leave the territory Russian Federation, discrediting its leadership and demotivating those citizens who will respond to the call to go to the front."

Among the other points listed to demonstrate how a Russian loss could be achieved, Girkin ranted about Russian domestic policies and its foreign policy, emphasizing possible support from China. He also referenced the conflicts between Russian military leaders.

"Conflicts between the leadership of PMC [Private Military Company] 'Wagner' and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation should also be encouraged in every possible way, while not allowing the conflict to end in favor of one of the conflicting parties—both are important and valuable to us, each performs its task within the framework of our plan," he said.

"In the future, there should be more such conflicts, they should constantly intensify and expand, the parties should mutually discredit each other."

On Sunday, Girkin said that Russian forces have "no chance" of controlling some Ukraine regions after an unsuccessful winter.

In a video posted to Twitter by Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Girkin said, "Unfortunately the unsuccessful winter campaign and the fact the Ukrainian army didn't suffer a strategic defeat practically dooms Trans-Dniester to defeat and occupation."

Western nations including the United States have continued to provide Ukraine with military and humanitarian aid which has helped troops with resistance amid Russia's attempts at advancement.

The battle between Ukrainian and Russian forces has extended through major Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the war including Kyiv, Odesa and Kherson. Most recently, Bakhmut, which is in the country's Donetsk region, has been the site of months-long fighting between Russian and paramilitary forces against Ukrainian troops.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian defense ministry via email for comment.