The Kremlin has drawn up a series of plans that outline how it can exert its influence in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania over the coming years, an investigation has revealed.
Leaked documents from Russian President Vladimir Putin's administration in Moscow were obtained by Swedish news outlet Expressen, Yahoo News and others.
Prior to Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic states had warned for years of a war that could be started by Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in January called Poland and the three nations, which are members of the EU, "extremism-inclined representatives" of Europe.
The strategies were created by the Russian Presidential Administration's Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation, which previously drafted another document that revealed the Kremlin planned the incorporation of Belarus into a "Union State" with Russia by 2030.
According to Yahoo News, about 300,000 ethnic Russians live in Estonia, making up some 24 percent of the population. Around 471,000 ethnic Russians live in Latvia, around 25 percent of its population and Lithuania is home to some 140,000, representing 5 percent of its population.
The key issue for the Kremlin is to reduce the presence of the NATO military alliance in the former Soviet countries, while simultaneously strengthening Russian influence and culture, the joint-investigation by Expressen, the London-based Dossier Center, the Kyiv Independent, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Yahoo News, Lithuanian broadcaster LRT and others found.
The documents state that associations and organizations should be created that can covertly advance pro-Russian narratives and spread Russian culture. Propaganda should allege discrimination against Russian speakers and Russian-speaking students should be invited to Russia. Meanwhile, the demolition or relocation of Soviet-era World War II monuments should be prevented.
In Estonia, lucrative business contracts should be offered to businessmen, one document states.
"Work with Estonian businessmen to explain the readiness of the Russian Federation to open the Russian market to them, provided that Tallinn changes its foreign policy to be more pro-Moscow," it said.
According to Expressen, one strategy document suggests that Russia intends to use the dependence of the Baltic states on its electricity grid as leverage by pointing to the risk of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania being disconnected from Russia's electricity grid.
The Baltic states are part of BRELL, an electrical power grid controlled by Moscow. However, the countries are preparing to synchronize their systems with continental Europe at the beginning of 2026.
A document on Lithuania states that Russia will create "conditions under which the Lithuanian leadership will be forced to recognize the potential damage to its national security from the build-up of NATO's military presence in the region."
Lithuania should be blocked from receiving air defenses that are linked to NATO, while the "number and scope of NATO's operational and combat training activities" in the country should be reduced, the document states.
Darius Jauniškis, head of Lithuania's security service, told Expressen that Russia often attempts to use its military power to pressure other nations.
"Russia's goal is to convince the international community that it is ready for military confrontation, if its demands are not heeded," Jauniškis said.
The Kremlin's plans in Latvia mention the "containment of NATO" and the creation of a school at a Russian institution in the capital, Riga, "which will become a center for strengthening the position of the Russian language, literature and culture" by 2025.
By 2030, the Russian language should be consolidated as a state language, it says.
Yahoo News notes that both Estonia and Latvia have recently adopted language reforms that will eventually result in the prohibition of Russian-language teaching in kindergartens and schools.
In February, Estonia's foreign intelligence service said it believed Russia could exert "credible military pressure" on the Baltic states. It assessed that Russia considers them to be "the most vulnerable part of NATO."
This "would make them a focus of military pressure in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict," the intelligence service said.
Newsweek has contacted Russia's foreign ministry via email for comment.
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About the writer
Isabel van Brugen is a Newsweek Reporter based in Kuala Lumpur. Her focus is reporting on the Russia-Ukraine war. Isabel ... Read more
