Russian Navy Limiting Black Sea Operations to 'Preserve Fleet': UK

Russia's Black Sea Fleet is curtailing its operations around the annexed Crimean Peninsula, according to a new assessment, following a run of deeply embarrassing Ukrainian strikes on Moscow's key assets in the region.

"The Russian Navy has highly likely resorted to limiting its operations to the eastern Black Sea as its losses mount," the U.K. government said in an analysis posted to social media on Tuesday.

As Kyiv works on striking Russian assets with long-range capabilities, Moscow has been forced to "increase its efforts to preserve its fleet in the Black Sea," the British Defense Ministry assessed.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Despite Russian advances dotted along the front line snaking through eastern Ukraine, Kyiv has enjoyed success in targeting Russia's assets in the Black Sea and all around the Crimean Peninsula. Moscow seized control of Crimea ten years ago, and Kyiv has vowed to reclaim it.

Part of this effort from Ukraine has involved long-range missile strikes and the effective wielding of home-grown naval drones—a wartime development Russia has been ill-equipped to fend off. Ukraine also habitually launches airborne drone strikes around the Black Sea.

"Ukraine has largely won the battle of the Black Sea," retired U.S. Navy vice-admiral Robert Murrett told Newsweek earlier this month.

Ukraine's MAGURA V5 naval drones have been credited with a run of successful attacks on Russia's Black Sea fleet, with the drones destroying the missile-armed corvette Ivanovets in February, Kyiv said.

Later that month, Ukraine said it targeted the Caesar Kunikov, a large landing ship, with uncrewed surface vehicles, and has zeroed in on several of Russia's remaining landing ships in separate strikes. This month Ukraine posted footage appearing to show MAGURA V5 drones striking the Sergei Kotov, one of Russia's four Project 22160 patrol ships.

Earlier in the war, Ukrainian anti-ship missiles were credited with sinking Russia's Black Sea flagship, the Mosvka, and Kyiv used Western-supplied long-range air-launched missiles to strike a Russian warship and Russia's Rostov-on-Don submarine in the Crimean port of Sevastopol in September 2023.

Russia is still dominant across much of the Black Sea, even if it is restrained in the northwestern corner closest to Ukraine because of attacks by Kyiv's forces, retired Ukrainian Navy Captain Andrii Ryzhenko told Newsweek in early March.

Ukraine has succeeded in forcing Russia eastward, shifting some of its resources to Novorossiysk, a Black Sea port city perched in internationally-recognized Russian territory and, crucially, further away from Ukraine's littoral waters.

Reports have also suggested the Kremlin is planning a new military base at the port of Ochamchire in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia. This would put Russian Black Sea assets even further from Ukraine's coastline.

Moscow is now far warier of keeping its newer, major vessels in Crimea, and has transferred several to Novorossiysk, Ryzhenko said.

Russia appears to have recognized the vulnerability of its Black Sea Fleet. Over the weekend, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu "ordered the installation of additional fire weapons, large-caliber machine-gun rifle systems to destroy enemy drones." The guns will be deployed on Black Sea fleet vessels, reported Russian state news agency, Tass.

The new firepower will help "increase the survivability of ships and vessels," alongside new training programs, "both during the day and at night to repel enemy terrorist attacks," Moscow said on Sunday.

Britain's Defense Minister Grant Shapps said in December that the Kremlin had lost 20 percent of its Black Sea fleet in the previous four months, adding: "Russia's dominance in the Black Sea is now challenged."