Russia is transferring its "most combat-capable" troops from the southern Ukrainian Kherson region—parts of which have been devastated by last week's destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam—to meet nascent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the 800-mile front, according to a defense minister in Kyiv.
Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, said on her official Telegram channel on Sunday that the Russian redeployments make it "obvious" that the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and subsequent regional flooding was an intentional effort by Moscow to block Ukrainian counteroffensive operations across the Dnieper River—called the Dnipro in Ukrainian—along which the dam sat.
"According to available information, it became known that the enemy is moving its most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction, primarily units of the marines, airborne troops and the 49th army," Maliar wrote. Forbes has described the 49th Combined Arms Army as "the Russian main force" in occupied Kherson region.
"Therefore, the purpose of undermining the [Kakhovka dam] by the Russians becomes obvious. Thus, taking into account their own losses and limited reserves, thereby understanding the inability to restrain the Ukrainian offensive in various directions, the command of the Russian occupying forces decided to 'narrow' the possible geography of active actions of the [Ukrainian] Armed Forces."
Kyiv's long-awaited counteroffensive now appears underway, with intense fighting taking place in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. Ukrainian officials have reported significant advances in multiple locations, though still expect to face multiple lines of Russian fortifications that Moscow's troops have spent several months preparing.
The devastation in the lower Dnieper region, though, appears to make Ukrainian offensive operations across the river less likely. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister and now an adviser to the defense ministry, told Newsweek that the swollen river makes Ukrainian operations there "impossible."
The undermining of the dam, Maliar said, "was apparently carried out with the aim of preventing an offensive by the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction and releasing the necessary reserves for their transfer to the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut directions."
"The Russian leadership is trying to divert part of the forces and resources of the Defense Forces of Ukraine to eliminate the man-made disaster, thereby making it impossible to liberate the occupied territories on the left bank of the Kherson region," Maliar added.
Still, the flooding is also thought to have inundated Russian defense positions along the eastern bank of the river, from which Moscow's troops have been bombarding Kherson and surrounding area since Ukrainian forces liberated the city in November.
The Institute for the Study of War's Sunday bulletin suggested that the Kherson flooding could ultimately prove problematic for Moscow, if Ukrainian forces do retain the ability to conduct amphibious operations in the area.
The ISW wrote: "If the terrain changes from flooding in the Dnipro River do not foreclose any possible Ukrainian river crossings in coming weeks and months, Russian forces may struggle to defend Kherson Oblast with remaining or then-available units if and when Ukrainian forces choose to conduct offensive operations across the river, assuming they have the ability to do so."
A spokesperson for the state-owned Ukrainian Ukrhydroenergo firm—responsible for hydroelectric facilities on the Dnieper—told Newsweek that it could cost as much as $1 billion to replace the destroyed structures.
The Nova Kakhovka reservoir—which is used by both the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant cooling system and the North Crimean Canal—has rapidly depleted, the spokesperson said, although they noted that accurate measurements are "impossible" because of the destruction of dam equipment.
However, the most recent estimates suggest the water level in the reservoir "is approximately 60 to 70 percent less than it was before the explosion," the spokesperson said.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
6/15/23 3:10 a.m. ET: This article has been updated to include comment from Ukrhydroenergo.
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