Russia's Struggling Military Unlikely to Achieve Putin's Ultimate Goal—U.K.

The Russian military isn't capable of achieving Vladimir Putin's goal of extending control over the region of Donbas and southeastern Ukraine, according to British intelligence.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on December 8 talked about the aims of Russia's "special military operation," following comments a day earlier by Putin. The Russian president said the operation was yielding "significant results," such as gaining "new territories" for Russia, despite it being a "long process," news agency TASS reported.

The comment about "new territories" may have sparked some confusion about annexing more land in Ukraine, which was enough to motivate Peskov to issue a follow-up statement saying that one of the main goals was to "protect" the people living in the Donbas region and southeastern Ukraine.

He reiterated that these "new territories" had joined Russia through referendums, referring to the staged votes on the annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia on September 30 that have widely not been recognized.

"As part of efforts to protect these people, these territories were formed and incorporated [into Russia] as a result of referendums that were held there. That's what the president was talking about," he said, as quoted by TASS.

Peskov's statement wasn't as triumphant as Putin's, as he added that "there is a lot to do to liberate the territories" and that Ukrainian forces are currently occupying the new regions that need to be "liberated."

The U.K. Ministry of Defence concluded that Peskov's comments suggest "Russia's current minimum political objectives of the war remain unchanged," and that Moscow's goal is "likely" still that of extending control over all of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts.

This conclusion was also reached by the Washington-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). It wrote on December 8 that Peskov "reiterated that the Kremlin is still pursuing its 'demilitarization' and 'denazification' objectives in Ukraine, which confirms that Russia is still pursuing regime change ('denazification') and the elimination of Ukraine's ability to resist future Russian attacks or pressure ('demilitarization')."

British intelligence concluded that: "Russian military planners likely still aim to prioritise advancing deeper into Donetsk Oblast," but said this strategy is unlikely to work.

"It is highly unlikely that the Russian military is currently able to generate an effective striking force capable of retaking these areas," the U.K. Ministry of Defence wrote in its latest intelligence update on December 12.

"Russian ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months."

The ISW also mentioned "the degradation of the Russian military through devastating losses in Ukraine" in its latest update on the war in Ukraine, saying that Moscow continues to pressure Belarusian forces to start fighting alongside Russian troops. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko is "highly unlikely" to send his army to join the fighting, the ISW concluded, but he will probably continue to support Russia.