Russian Support for War Collapses as Conflict Enters Third Year

Support in Russia for the war started by Vladimir Putin has slumped by a quarter in the last 12 months, amid increasing anxiety among the population about impending mobilization, a survey by an independent Russian pollster has found.

Official state poll results in Russia claim answers to the question about support for the war represent people's sentiments. However, the research group Chronicles, founded by Aleksei Miniailo, a Russian opposition politician, and a team of sociologists, says this is not true. It adds that people answer "yes" not just out of genuine support, but also as a sign of loyalty or for fear of repressions.

Amid a clampdown on dissent since the beginning of Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Chronicles says its polls take into consideration the answers to a series of questions and so provide a more accurate snapshot of public opinion about the war. Newsweek emailed the Kremlin for comment on Saturday.

Chronicles' survey of 1,602 respondents between January 23 and 29 was released Saturday on the second anniversary of the war. It found that "consistent" support for the war had decreased over the last 12 months, down from 22 percent in February 2023 to 17 percent now.

"Consistent" war supporters are those who simultaneously expressed their backing for the invasion; did not want troops withdrawn from Ukraine without the Kremlin's war aims achieved; and believe that the budget priority should be the armed forces.

The amount of "consistent" peace supporters—that is, those who do not back the war; want troops withdrawn; and say social spending, not the military, should be the Kremlin's budget priority—has stayed roughly the same over the last year, at 19 percent today compared to 20 percent in February 2023. The poll had a 2.44 percent margin of error.

Following two years of heavy troop losses, which, as of Saturday, was 409,010, according to Kyiv, though not verified by Newsweek, Putin is reportedly expected to announce a new wave of mobilization after the election starting on March 15. He is widely expected to retain power.

On Saturday, Russian police on Saturday detained at least four people at a weekly protest outside the Kremlin by the wives of mobilized soldiers who were demanding their men return home. Putin announced a partial mobilization in September 2022.

The Chronicles survey found there was resistance among Russians towards another mobilization. Only 17 percent supported the move, and 29 percent opposed a draft and believed those already mobilized should return home. Twenty-six percent backed the status quo.

'Tired' of the War

"That is a sign of how tired people are of the war and that they are aware that going there is no good," Miniailo told Newsweek.

The poll also asked people what they will expect to happen after the elections if Putin wins and what they want to occur.

If Putin wins, 72 percent of Russian anticipated the Kremlin spending more on the armed forces, but only 49 percent desire this.

It also found 83 percent want the government to focus on social and economic problems; 58 percent wanted a truce with Kyiv; and 51 percent for ties with the West to be restored.

"We found a very wide gap between what Russians want and what they expect from Putin," Miniailo said. "It will be even bigger when they see what Putin is actually doing, because more than 50 percent of Russians expect that Putin will turn his prime attention to solving inner Russian problems in society and economics," he added, "but he will not do that.

"It's very unlikely that he will win the war and also more than half of Russians expect him to win the war within a year," Miniailo said, "so people will be even more disappointed. That might signal the window for some change within Russia, which is, to me, the only way for security in Europe."