Western countries backing Ukraine need to urgently increase their defense production, dedicating more military equipment to Kyiv while battling Moscow's wielding of information, to prevent the Kremlin from triumphing in Ukraine, according to a new analysis.
"The West has the advantage, but it must decide to use it," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S. think tank, said Wednesday. "All it needs to do is stand up" and mobilize in support of Ukraine's war effort.
"Mobilizing would mean surging its military production, sparing more of its existing military capabilities and economic assets, and accepting a higher threshold for pain and risk now to avoid more cost and pain and risk in the future," the ISW said.
Many Western countries have committed to arming and supporting Ukraine in the more than 25 months Kyiv has spent fighting Russia's full-scale invasion. The U.S. has been the single largest donator of military aid to Kyiv's war effort.
But a new package, worth $60 billion, has languished for months in Congress, jeopardizing Ukraine's supplies of ammunition, rockets, air defense systems and other vital assets. Shortages have already boxed Ukraine into a corner by limiting its operations against Russia, experts say.
Worries over whether Ukraine is adequately equipped will likely worsen in the coming months. Kyiv has warned that Russia is preparing for a renewed offensive around late May and into the summer, and Moscow has been making slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine.
Western analysts say Russia is hoping to exhaust Ukraine and the support of its Western allies in a grinding war of attrition. Despite sustaining heavy casualties and sky-high equipment losses, Moscow mobilized its industry and put itself on a war footing to plug the gaps in supplies.
Russia is now dedicating around a third of its state spending to defense, rolling out replacement tanks and replenishing its missile stocks.
Western governments, militaries and companies have scaled up defense production, focusing not least on the NATO-standard 155 mm artillery shell that is in high demand in Ukraine. The alliance's stocks have been depleted by sending 155 mm ammunition to the war-torn country.
But throughout the war, Western governments have been hesitant to dedicate resources, citing fears over escalation. The Kremlin's use of "perception manipulation," or making Ukraine's backers see the world and the conflict a certain way, could "allow Russia to win in the real world," the ISW said.
"The Kremlin's principal effort is to force the United States to accept and reason from Russian premises to decisions that advance Russia's interests, not ours," the think tank said.
The U.S. and other countries backing Ukraine need to "take several specific and immediate steps," the ISW said. These nations should give "Ukraine sufficient military aid and other support required for Ukraine to restore maneuver to the battlefield," as well as ramping up their defense-industrial bases and production within Ukraine, the think tank said.
The West should also help Ukraine exploit vulnerabilities in Russia's military, such as its Black Sea Fleet, the ISW said. Ukraine has estimated that Russia may have lost around a third of its Black Sea Fleet after Kyiv successfully targeted its vessels and bases with missiles and drones during the many months of conflict.
"Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West — and will likely lose — if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin," the ISW said.
Correction 3/31/2024, 10 a.m. ET: This article has been corrected to change a reference to Russia's defense spending.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Ellie Cook is a Newsweek security and defense reporter based in London, U.K. Her work focuses largely on the Russia-Ukraine ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
