What NATO Articles 4 and 5 Say as Missile Strikes Poland

As if world leaders gathered in Indonesia did not have enough to talk about, the missile that struck a Polish village has set them on alert about the war in Ukraine possibly escalating to include NATO members, the military alliance Vladimir Putin has railed against.

NATO has given military aid to Ukraine to fight against Putin's aggression, but Tuesday's incident in Przewodow (which killed two people) was the first time the war has directly impacted the soil of an alliance member.

It is not known who fired the missile, or where it was fired from, though the Polish Foreign Ministry has described it as "Russian-made." Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made munitions during the conflict.

Amid Moscow's strident denials of responsibility, U.S. President Joe Biden said on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali that it was "unlikely" that the missile was fired from Russia.

Unnamed American officials told the Associated Press the missile could have been fired by Kyiv as it targeted rockets that Russia has rained down upon Ukraine in the last day.

Meanwhile, the former director of policy planning for NATO, Fabrice Pothier, has told Newsweek that the incident may be unlikely to trigger the principle of collective defense.

However, he said another article of the military alliance's charter could be invoked because Polish territory was breached after a concerted effort by Russia to fire a barrage of missiles on Ukraine.

What is Article 5?

This part of NATO's charter is a "one-for-all and all-for-one" principle of the alliance, which was founded in 1949 to prevent a post-World War II resurgence of nationalism and militarism and to deter the Soviet Union.

Collective defense means that "an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies" and is enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. NATO has standing forces on active duty which form the alliance's collective defense efforts on a permanent basis.

Article 5 was invoked for the first and only time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the U.S. The alliance has also taken collective defense measures on several occasions, including in response to the situation in Syria and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine is not a member of the alliance and so Western support for Kyiv has not included putting their troops on the ground, but the U.S-led alliance has been aware of the risks of miscalculation that might lead to escalation.

Pothier said Tuesday's incident, that took place about four miles west from the Ukrainian border, is unlikely to cross the threshold for Article 5. "There has to be a clear intent," he told Newsweek.

"To talk about an attack you have to attribute that to an attacker, and that the attacker had the intention of causing harm or killing people or destroying infrastructure. This is the qualitative difference between an incident such as a misfiring and an intentional targeting."

"The next couple of days the facts will be established," he said. "Poland and the U.S. have enough surveyors and radar systems to recreate the trajectory of the missiles to attribute where they come from.

"At the end, we will be able to properly who fired what and possibly under what circumstances," he added.

What About Article 4?

As the investigation continues, it is up to Poland to decide the next steps.

"I don't think Article 5 was really on the table," said Pothier, although he believed that there was still enough ground for Poland to invoke Article 4, "because the bottom line is that Polish territory was breached as a result of an overall escalation undertaken by Russia."

On Tuesday, Moscow launched a fresh wave of missiles targeting cities and critical infrastructure across Ukraine. The Ukrainian air force said Russia had fired around 100 missiles in the attacks

Article 4 allows for any member to seek consultations with the rest of the alliance and states when "the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the parties is threatened," according to the treaty.

This does not guarantee that the alliance will take action, but it is a step up in discussions between members.

"The origin of the problem is still the barbaric escalation that Russia has undertaken," said Pothier, who is CEO of the political consultancy, Rasmussen Global. "This is still part of a bigger context where Russia is the escalatory one—this still needs to be addressed.

He said it also raised questions over whether the alliance was properly equipped in terms of defensive measures. This needed to be addressed, "to make sure that even an unintended incident is not going to have the consequences we saw yesterday."

Newsweek has contacted NATO for comment.