What Martial Law Move Tells Us About Putin's Ukraine War Strategy

President Vladimir Putin's declaration of martial law in the four Ukrainian regions Russia has annexed illegally comes as his invasion is plagued by more setbacks.

The decree, which applies to the oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, was announced as Ukrainian forces continue to liberate occupied territories.

It also comes amid reports that Russian-installed officials and military personnel are leaving the Zaporizhzhia city of Ernehodar and Kherson city, whose recapture by Kyiv would deliver another blow to Putin.

Analysts have said Moscow is setting out the conditions to justify retreating from Kherson oblast, while Philip Ingram, a former intelligence officer with the British Army, told Newsweek that Putin's declaration showed he "is running out of options."

"In the short term, he can force civilians out of Kherson at gunpoint but will likely use them as human shields in mixed convoys and ferries across the Dnieper," Ingram said, referring to the river on whose western side Kherson sits.

"It will allow him to potentially create more human shields in areas of operational importance, like cams in logistic depots," which would be placed "near command centers to try and reduce Ukrainian strikes," he said.

Ingram added that he believed the decree would "force more to be dragooned into the local militias and either fight directly or provide a supporting role [such as] medics and cooks."

Russian legislation states that martial law limits the rights and freedoms of citizens; introduces curfews; and restricts entry, exit and movement throughout the territories.

Putin's declarations outline four levels of readiness, ranging from "maximum" martial law in the four recently annexed regions to "basic." An elevated response will operate in Crimea and Sevastopol along with regions bordering Russia, such as the Krasnodar Territory, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov.

Gustav Gressel, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek that the "Russian occupiers do what is in the new provisions anyway."

He added: "I think the occupied areas are just the diversion, the real effect he wants to achieve is strengthening repression and forcing people to labor in the defense industry in Russia proper."

Putin's decree was "a further sign that he can't win the war on 'normal' setting," Gressel said.

The Institute for the Study of War said Putin's decree was "largely legal theater meant to legitimize activities the Russian military needs to undertake," as it sought to create the circumstances for future mobilization and further domestic restrictions.

The think tank also said Putin had framed his order as empowering local officials by granting them sweeping powers, although Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin wrote on his blog that he does not plan to invoke any of the decree's provisions in the short term.

Mark Galeotti, Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, tweeted that this was significant because Putin had asked Sobyanin to help oversee the decrees' implementation.

"It will be interesting to see who uses them as Moscow wants, who essentially tries to ignore them, and who just uses it to embezzle all the more assiduously," Galeotti added.

Independent Russian journalist Farida Rustamova wrote in a Substack post that the Ukrainian offensive and the threat of Russia losing Kherson were "forcing Putin to make decisions that could undermine his rating."

As such, he was delegating unpopular decisions to the regions, as he did during the pandemic when he tasked his governors with the COVID response. "Putin would not have been Putin if he had not again tried to put on a good face on a bad game," Rustamova wrote.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.

Update 10/20/22, 12:40 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comments from Gustav Gressel, from the European Council on Foreign Relations.