Russia's Winter War on Ukraine's Energy Has Failed: U.K.

Russia's campaign during the winter months to destroy Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure through relentless missile strikes "has highly likely failed," the U.K.'s Ministry of Defence has said in its latest intelligence briefing on the war.

The Russian military had been bombarding strategic targets across the war-torn nation in a bid to disrupt the war effort and demoralize Ukraine's citizens. While the strikes led to widespread blackouts, on Friday the nation's energy minister announced exports of electricity would resume after a six-month hiatus thanks to successful repairs to the energy grid.

Ukraine had been a key supplier of electricity to the European Union and neighboring Moldova, which had also suffered temporary blackouts as a result of the initial wave of missile strikes. According to figures from Ukraine's Ministry of Energy, between June and October 2022, it sold 2.6 billion kilowatt hours—roughly enough energy for 1.6 million EU citizens.

Russia began its barrage of long-range strikes on infrastructure targets in October last year, with air raid sirens and processions to bunkers becoming part of daily life across Ukraine. But Western intelligence suggests these attacks have become rare since early March, while smaller-scale strikes continue.

On Saturday morning, the U.K. Ministry of Defence (MoD) wrote that Russia's "campaign to severely degrade Ukraine's unified energy system" had not achieved its primary objective, and noted that Ukraine's situation regarding its energy production and transmission "will likely improve with the arrival of warmer weather."

"Ukraine's network operating companies continue to source replacement transformers and other critical components," it added, despite stating that transporting and installing such components remains "a major logistical challenge, especially high voltage transformers which weigh at least 100 tonnes."

Ukraine had halted electricity exports to the EU following the start of strikes on its power grid, but in a statement on Friday, the nation's energy minister, German Galushchenko said the system had been operating normally for around two months.

"We have achieved this result thanks to the titanic work of energy workers [and] our international partners who helped in the restoration of the system," he said in a statement.

"The hardest winter is over," Galushchenko added. "The next step is to open up electricity exports, which will enable additional financial resource for the much-needed rebuilding of destroyed energy infrastructure."

The energy minister signed a document permitting the export of 400 megawatts of electricity to the European network, but officials stressed that actual volumes may fluctuate and that the electricity needs of Ukrainian consumers would remain an "absolute priority."

Currently, fighting between Russia and Ukraine's militaries remains focussed on the eastern regions of the country, where the invading forces are looking to secure their hold on the regions Russian President Vladimir Putin said he had annexed. His annexation is not internationally recognized and has been described by many as illegal.

Ukraine continues to defend strategic positions in the east, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group, which is believed to be taking a lead in the offensive on Bakhmut and has been highly critical of Russian military tactics, wrote on Telegram on Thursday that "the enemy is not going anywhere."

Western intelligence officials now believe both sides are preparing for a spring offensive once the weather improves, as the war drags on into its second year.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment on Saturday.