Russian Fears Explain Reluctance to Deploy Air Force over Ukraine – U.K.

Russia has been reluctant to deploy its airforce over Ukraine since it launched its full-scale invasion of the country almost a year ago, due to the danger of a strike against Russian airfields and the "continued high threat" of Ukrainian air defenses, according to British intelligence.

In its daily intelligence update on the Ukraine War on Thursday, the British Defense Ministry said that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in the Ukraine war "as they have for many months."

The ministry noted that Russian sortie rates have increased over the last week, following several weeks of quieter activity. Air activity is now nearly the same as the average daily rate seen since summer 2022, it said.

"Overall, Russian air power continues to significantly underperform in the war, constrained by a continued high threat from Ukrainian air defences and dispersed basing due to the threat of strikes against Russian airfields," the ministry said.

"Dispersed basing" is a strategy when the aircraft are spread and constantly moving.

"Russian combat jets operate almost exclusively over Russian-held territory, preventing them from carrying out their key strike role effectively," the ministry added.

"Across Russia, the VKS likely maintains a largely intact fleet of approximately 1,500 crewed military aircraft, despite losing over 130 since the start of the invasion.

"However, it is unlikely that the VKS is currently preparing for a dramatically expanded air campaign as under the current battlefield circumstances it would likely suffer unsustainable aircraft losses."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry for comment.

A report from Washington D.C.-based the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank on Wednesday said that Russia's costly military foray in Ukraine has significantly depleted its equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in the east of the country.

NATO ministers met for the second day in Brussels on Thursday to discuss support for Ukraine with the provision of tanks being a main talking point.

Speaking to the BBC before the talks on Wednesday, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said that Russia had failed to "punch through" Ukraine's defenses. The Pentagon shared a similar sentiment after the NATO talks, saying that Russia had ill-equipped and poorly trained conscripts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to make a televised address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21, a year after formally declaring the eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk "independent" states.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilization initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21," The ISW said in its Wednesday report.

It said a Western provision of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine would make it harder for Russia to conduct a large invasion as the country struggles to start its defense production in the immediate term.

"Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity to initiate large-scale counteroffensives over the next few months, but its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it the necessary materiel, particularly tanks and armored vehicles," the ISW said, adding that Russia's military failures continue to deny Putin the ability to present a military success in his homeland.