Russian warships are in the Indian Ocean this week as Moscow looks to bolster its relations with Bangladesh and Myanmar, two nations in the throes of anti-democratic shifts where the Kremlin is eyeing new economic and political opportunities.
Anti-submarine warfare ships Admiral Tributs and Admiral Panteleyev—both of the Russian Pacific Fleet—and the tanker Pechenga docked at the Bangladeshi port of Chittagong in the Bay of Bengal this weekend, days after joint Russia-Myanmar naval drills concluded in the nearby Andaman Sea.
Combined, the two events may hint at Moscow's future ambition in the Indian Ocean region, a strategic nexus through which run lucrative trade routes, including the majority of Chinese oil imports. Here, Beijing, Washington, D.C., and New Delhi are all vying for influence, in what Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe has described as a "big power rivalry."
Moscow hailed last week's Andaman Sea drills as "the first Russian-Myanmar naval exercise in modern history." The maritime war games underscore long-time military ties between the Kremlin and Myanmar's authoritarian junta, which is currently engaged in a fierce civil conflict with a range of rebel groups following the military's 2021 coup.
The naval arrival in Chittagong, meanwhile, was lauded by the Russian embassy in Dhaka as a "huge milestone for Russia-Bangladesh relations," and the first such visit in 50 years. Dhaka has been building closer ties with Moscow in recent years, partially in response to growing Western—and primarily American—pressure over the undermining of the country's democratic processes.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.
Russia is seeking to bolster its strong historic ties with the "Global South" amid its disastrous war in Ukraine. Isolated from lucrative Western markets and choked—though not entirely—of key consumer, technology, and industrial imports, Moscow is on the lookout for new opportunities, particularly in anti-democratic nations.
"Russian interest in the region is growing because of the Western sanctions, first of all, and Russia needs new needs new markets for its goods," Oleg Ignatov, the Crisis Group think tank's senior Russia analyst, told Newsweek.
"When the European and Western countries imposed sanctions, Russia rebuilt its trade ties. They established new trade routes and ties with countries from Asia, first of all, and also with countries like Turkey and the Gulf countries. Sanctions changed Russian trade hugely."
Such economic incentives can largely explain Moscow's Bangladesh outreach, Ignatov said. Russia is already financing 90 percent of a $12.65 billion project to build Bangladesh's first nuclear power plant in Rooppur, in the center of the country. Bangladesh received the first shipment of Russian uranium fuel for the facility in October.
Moscow's Myanmar ties are primarily military, Ignatov explained, based "solely on military technical cooperation."
The junta ruling in Naypyidaw has long been a prime customer for Russian weapons. Kremlin backing for the authoritarian government has helped it hold power despite a fierce pro-democracy insurgency. "Myanmar needs Russia because it doesn't want to be isolated," Ignatov said, "and they also need an alternative to China in the region."
U.S. State Department Counselor Derek Chollet complained in March that "continued military support for the junta is unacceptable" and "destabilizing," adding: "It's not only a problem for Myanmar, it's a problem for this region."
Russia may be honing its ambitions in the Indian Ocean region, but it will not be able to compete with the U.S., China, or India for the foreseeable future. Russia has no regional military bases, and even Myanmar military ruler Min Aung Hlaing stressed during his visit to Moscow last year that a Russian naval base is not on the cards.
"It's not possible for Russia, it doesn't have such resources," Ignatov said. "They are more interested in the Mediterranean than this region."
Even if Moscow did have the capacity, expanding its Indian Ocean footprint would risk upsetting two potential future superpowers in China and India.
"Russia has a balance with China within this region," Ignatov said. "It understands that it's a region where China has its own interest, and it doesn't want to compete with China." Broadly, he added, Moscow is more concerned about U.S. presence in Japan closer to its own borders.
Beijing, meanwhile, will be looking to out-compete its Indian and American rivals in the region, particularly as Washington and New Delhi embark of a nascent era of enhanced military cooperation that includes this year's agreement for U.S. Navy ships to use Indian ports.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
