Visa Ban Could Push Russians Into Putin's Arms, Bolstering Support at Home

After more than six months of war, Ukraine wants the West to take more action against Russia, urging nations to ban Russian travelers from entering the European Union, the U.S., the U.K. and Canada. But experts warn that visa bans would have the opposite effect and boost Russian President Vladimir Putin's support at home rather than force him to cease fire.

Ahead of the EU foreign ministers' meeting in Prague this week, the question of whether ordinary Russians should pay the price for Putin's war hangs in the air. As some countries, mainly the Baltic nations, push for a wider ban on visas, others have shut down the idea entirely.

Germany and the U.S. have both spoken out about the proposed measure, saying it's important to "draw a line" between the Kremlin and the people of Russia. Along with creating more friction between the West and Russia, visa bans would undermine the efforts that have already been made to weaken Putin, according to experts.

Michael Kimmage, a former member of the U.S. secretary of state's policy-planning staff in charge of the Russia/Ukraine portfolio, told Newsweek that implementing an EU-wide ban would feed into the message the West is hostile and Russophobic, a constant narrative the Russian government has pushed since the start of the war.

"Russian propagandists are already capitalizing on these debates," Yuri Zhukov, an associate political science professor at the University of Michigan, agreed. "A potential EU visa ban is being discussed as evidence of ethnic discrimination against Russians, and as a warning to anyone considering leaving the country that 'no one wants you over there.'"

Brian Taylor, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said that while Russia is likely to push this narrative regardless of what the EU chooses to do, a ban would become "tangible proof" of the Kremlin's claims, ultimately helping Putin more than anything.

The Czechs and Estonians, who are pushing for a wider ban across the EU, have already stopped issuing regular visas to Russians themselves, and Estonia has also invalidated existing ones. This week, the foreign minister of Estonia told NBC that the ban wasn't about punishing Russia, but ending the war. "The right to enter any particular country is not a human right," said Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu.

Finland has also planned to cut the number of visas issued to Russians by 90 percent, and Poland has expressed support of an EU-wide ban.

Although an EU diplomat told reporters that the debate is likely to be at the top of the agenda this week, Joseph Borrell, who chairs the foreign ministers' meeting, said the ban is likely to lack support.

"I don't think that to cut the relationship with the Russian civilian population will help, and I don't think that this idea will have the required unanimity," Borrell told Austria's national broadcaster ORF TV.

While there were some 13.7 million international departures from Russia last year, according to analytics firm GlobalData, experts noted that less than a third of Russian citizens have a passport for international travel, and a large majority of the population has never left the country.

Zhukov said that because Russian travelers are typically wealthier, more educated and pro-West than the average citizen, a visa ban would have a disproportionate impact on the Russians who disagree with Putin. So, restricting or outright banning visa issuances to Russians would not only help Putin bolster his message to those who already support him, but it would also push those who may be indifferent or in opposition closer to him.

"The practical effect of this ban would be far less than many people think, and the political effect would be the opposite of what many hope," Zhukov said.

Since a visa ban would hurt Russians who are most strongly tied to the West, it has massive implications on opposition activists and dissenters who hope to seek refuge elsewhere—a point the State Department has made.

"The U.S. wouldn't want to close off pathways to refuge and safety for Russia's dissidents or others who are vulnerable to human rights abuses," a spokesperson for the department said last week.

Taylor said that it would be hard to imagine how a visa ban would lead to "meaningful action" against the Russian president inside the country, but that it would, however, make it harder for those trying to leave over their opposition to the war or detainment in Russia.

As the West grapples with how to confront Russia in a war that has persisted longer than many had hoped, Kimmage said the real question for the West is about its long game.

He said the EU must consider whether a visa ban is part of a strategic, long-term approach to Russia from the 27-member bloc, "or is this more episodic, short term and perhaps emotional?"

Zhukov added that while much of the pushback on the proposed ban has been on economic grounds, the "fundamental issue is political."

"If the goal of sanctions is to exploit divisions within Russian society and put pressure on the Russian state, leading to its eventual collapse, then this policy would be counterproductive," he said. "It would leave the most pro-Western parts of Russian society with little choice but to stay and try to make peace with the regime."