Second Trump Presidency Could Spark World Chaos: Experts

A successful reelection campaign by former President Donald Trump next fall could have major ramifications for America's relationship with foreign adversaries, according to experts who spoke with New York Times columnist Thomas Edsall.

Trump is the front-runner for the Republican Party's next presidential nomination, and some preliminary polls show him in the lead even against Democrats' expected choice, President Joe Biden. But critics of the former president have warned that electing Trump back to the White House could threaten America's democratic institutions, and according to Edsall's latest op-ed published on Wednesday, a second Trump presidency could also shake an already volatile "world order" between Western and Eastern powers.

Edsall's conversations with foreign policy experts highlighted what a second Trump term could mean for the relationship between America's main adversaries: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Questions have previously focused on how another Trump presidency could impact the war between Russia and Ukraine, given that the former president has spoken friendly of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the past.

According to Constanze Stelzenmüller, director of the Center on the U.S. and Europe at the Brookings Institution think tank, a second Trump administration could shift America's alignment on the global scale "to a much more transactionalist, pro-authoritarian or even predatory mode."

"That alone could tip an already fragile world order into chaos," she told Edsall.

Philipp Ivanov, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Edsall that while it was unlikely for Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang to look at ever forming an official "alliance" with one another, the reelection of Trump would "undermine the significant efforts of the Biden administration to rebuild, strengthen and reimagine American alliance systems in Europe and Asia."

"Under Trump, America's international image in a democratic world is likely to suffer," Ivanov said. "The biggest risks to U.S. foreign policy are Trump's disdain for alliances, transactional approach to foreign and security policy, overly aggressive approach to China and Iran, and a more forgiving attitude to Putin and [North Korean leader] Kim [Jong Un]."

"Pyongyang, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran will cheer his re-election, but its leaders will be quietly anxious about his next moves," he added.

Jonathan Winer, U.S. State Department's former special envoy for Libya, echoed Ivanov's assessment about how Trump's reelection could boost Putin's chances against Ukraine.

"Trump's election would, of course, help Russia, threaten Ukraine and threaten Western alliances, starting with NATO itself," Winer told Edsall. "Trump has it in for Ukraine, as reflected in the fraying of Ukrainian support within the elements of the Republican congressional caucus that is closest to Trump."

Newsweek reached out to Trump's press team via email for comment Wednesday.

Trump has long-campaigned on an "America First" policy, which is often tied to the U.S. taking a much more neutral approach to foreign relations. The former president has also recently said that supporting Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression is not a top priority for Washington, and threatened many times during his first presidency to pull out of NATO.

Edsall noted in his op-ed that supporters of Trump have advocated for the "retrenchment of America's financial and logistical support of NATO" without calling for a full withdraw from the alliance itself.

"A much more prudent strategy is to force a Europe defended by Europeans with only American naval presence and as a logistics provider of last resort with the U.S. reoriented toward Asia," Sumantra Maitra, visiting senior fellow at the conservative policy group Citizens for Renewing America, wrote in a recent essay cited by Edsall. "West Europe will not be serious about the continent's defense as long as Uncle Sam is there to break the glass during a fire."