Stockton Serial-Killer Case Linked to Shooter Appears to Break Trend

Police have identified two more victims of a possible serial killer stalking Stockton, California — and it may have shaken everything investigators thought they knew about the killer's modus operandi.

Expert criminologists have told Newsweek that the police will have to tread carefully as they try to uncover the pattern of deaths and seek to draw links between them. But there appears to be a break in the case because police now believe they have a witness in the form of a victim who survived a previous attack.

The potential killing spree appears to have begun earlier than thought, which means police may be able to gain further clues from those attacks while the killer was more inexperienced and more likely to make mistakes.

Until now, all of the known victims were men, with the five homicides from July to September of this year all occurring in the early hours with one exception:

• July 8, 2022: Paul Alexander Yaw, a 35-year-old white man, was shot to death in the 5600 block of Kermit Lane at 12:31 a.m.
• August 11, 2022: Salvador William Debudey Jr., a 43-year-old Hispanic man, was shot to death in the 4900 block of West Lane at 9:49 p.m.
• August 30, 2022: Jonathan Hernandez Rodriguez, a 21-year-old Hispanic man, was shot to death in the 800 block of E. Hammer Lane at 6:41 a.m.
• September 21, 2022: Juan Cruz, a 52-year-old Hispanic man, was shot to death in the 4400 block of Manchester Avenue at 4:27 a.m.
• September 27, 2022: Lawrence Lopez Sr., a 54-year-old Hispanic man, was shot to death in the 900 block of Porter Avenue at 1:53 a.m.

On Monday night, Stockton Police Department wrote on Facebook that they are now linking two more shootings to the case dating back to last year. One of the victims is a woman who, in another departure from the pattern, survived the attack. And another man was killed in a city some 80 miles away from Stockton:

• April 10, 2021: A 40-year-old Hispanic man was shot to death in Oakland, California, at 4:18 a.m.
• April 16, 2021: A 46-year-old Black woman was shot at Park Street and Union Street in Stockton at 3:20 a.m. The woman survived her injuries.

Police must now work out what these other attacks can teach them.

The fact the police have a victim who survived the attempt on her life has now provided investigators with a key witness.

David Wilson, a professor emeritus of criminology at Birmingham City University in the U.K., told Newsweek he didn't think the woman had survived because the killer made a mistake.

"I think she was just lucky," he said. "She was fortunate. But then, the fortune now favors the police, because they've got some indication by being able to interview her as to the circumstances in which she came to be shot."

Police must now work out whether the killer has been specifically targeting men, as it initially appeared, or whether each victim's gender is irrelevant.

But Wilson, who is not involved in the Stockton investigation, is sure that men remain the intended targets, saying: "The fact that the second [shooting] was a woman, I wouldn't put too much store by that. Because one in a sequence of seven [shootings] when you've got six men, it means that he is targeting lone men. Men are undoubtedly his target rather than women or we would have seen six women shot and one man."

Wilson suggested the fact the majority of cases occurred in the early hours "is a really important fact" because it "implies it's either before he goes to work or after he's finished a night shift. It might be related to his work patterns."

Jane Monckton-Smith, Ph.D., professor of public protection at the University of Gloucestershire in the U.K., told Newsweek that detectives face a challenge when it comes to linking cases together and drawing conclusions from them.

She said: "One of the most difficult problems in apprehending a serial killer is the lack of relationship between killer and victim... It's also difficult to link killings – linkage analysis is a complex task, and these links can be missed for a number of reasons...

"Police can be slow to recognize patterns in sudden deaths. Including a death in a series that was committed by someone else can also contaminate the information. So it is a task that needs some expertise."

Monckton-Smith, who focuses on interpersonal violence and homicide prevention, is not involved in the Stockton investigation. But using her expert knowledge in this area, she is able to outline the likely profile of the killer.

She said the person is likely to "[have] good local knowledge, able to be out at night without attracting comment, [and has a] possible history of domestic abuse or control in relationships."

Because the suspect's image had not been caught clearly by CCTV cameras nor had they apparently been seen by witnesses, it suggests an element of planning and an in-depth knowledge of the area, according to Monckton-Smith.

She added: "Clearly this person is comfortable with a gun and must have some experience shooting. They are confident if not brazen, so will have some history of either criminal activity or maybe a gun in their work environment.

"There are various motivations in cases of serial killing – for example, resentment, sexual attacks, power and control, anger through a sense of injustice. Most serial killers will have a preferred victim type, someone who may represent an injustice they perceive.

"This person is planning their attacks, and though victims may be those they can access, there do seem to be similarities. Access is key with serial killing," Monckton-Smith said.

"Men are rarely the victims, unless they are vulnerable in some way (such as the homeless) or part of a marginalized group (gay men or drug users, for example). So this is somewhat unusual.

"Police will now be profiling the crimes, the victims, and the killer(s). They will not give all information to the public for obvious reasons," Monckton-Smith said. "Personality disorder is over-represented in these types of killings, so killers may not be remorseful or feel guilty or anxious about their activities. They can appear normal between killings."

Police have declined to reveal various details about the case while they investigate, and Monckton-Smith pointed out what remains unclear: "How close was the killer to the victim when they were shot? Were they all shot in the same part of the body? How many shots were fired? Is this person a good shot?"

All of these factors will provide clues as detectives try to track the killer.

Besides now having a witness, another factor working in investigators' favor is that the killer is mostly confined to Stockton because "geographically stable serial killers tend to be caught much more quickly than geographically transient serial killers," Wilson said.

Other elements that are likely to help the police are that investigators have been able to release a CCTV image of a suspect, while modern forensic advances mean the killer's DNA may be able to be recovered from the crime scenes.

Wilson discussed what the police need to do now in order to solve the case, saying: "The first in any sequence of murders is the crucial one to focus on, because the first in the sequence of murders is when the murderer is at his most inexperienced and therefore they make mistakes, they leave clues that they won't leave when they become more experienced in taking another person's life.

"Now, initially we thought we knew the first one [was in July 2022], but now if there have been two earlier shootings, and one of those shootings was at some distance away from Stockton... if I was advising I would be saying, 'Let's look at the first murder. How do the victim and the perpetrator come into connection with one another?' ...If it's just random and the perpetrator and the victim didn't know one another, then that is much more difficult in policing terms."

On Monday, the office of the medical examiner of San Joaquin County revealed the identities of the first five known victims: Paul Yaw, 35; Salvador Debudey Jr., 43; Jonathan Hernandez Rodriguez, 21; Juan Cruz, 52; and Lawrence Lopez Sr., 54.

Lopez "was just a person who was out here at the wrong place at the wrong time at the wrong circumstance," the victim's brother, Jerry Lopez, told Sacramento station KXTV.

Yaw was described as "a good man with a big heart" in a family statement to ABC 6 News. It added: "He was a son, brother, father, grandson, nephew and cousin."

Newsweek has reached out to Stockton Police Department for further information.

Authorities are appealing to the public for information. There is a $95,000 reward for details that lead to an arrest in the case.

Update 10/4/22, 1:48 PM ET: This story has been updated with additional information.