Russian President Vladimir Putin's newest shakeup of Russian military command in Ukraine shows that "serious offensives" are coming as the war in Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, according to a Russia analyst.
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov was appointed to the role of top battlefield commander in Ukraine, the Russian state media outlet TASS reported Wednesday, citing the Russian Defense Ministry. Gerasimov replaced Sergey Surovikin, a former commander of Russia's air force, also known by his nickname "General Armageddon," just months after he was chosen for the position in October 2022.
His demotion will not fully exclude him from the Ukraine command loop, since he was appointed to serve as one of three deputies for Gerasimov.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the new appointments for Putin's war effort are "related to the broader scope of missions tackled in its course and the need to organize closer coordination between military branches and services of the armed forces and also the increased quality of all types of logistics support and efficiency in command and control of the groups of troops," according to TASS.
Mark Galeotti, a writer, political scientist and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, broke down the significance of the command shuffle in a Twitter thread Thursday.
For Surovikin, his replacement by Gerasimov does signal a demotion, even if Russia is not framing the move that way, Galeotti wrote. He said that Surovikin did not actually do anything wrong, despite recent setbacks like the Ukraine strike on Russian-occupied Makiivka late last year that reportedly killed hundreds of Russian personnel.
Galeotti wrote that "there is a limit to what one new commander can do in three months." But Putin, who lacks military experience and has a "court full of sycophants," may not understand this.
Galeotti believes that both Russia and Ukraine are looking at spring offensives. He predicted that any advances Russia makes at such a time wouldn't be decisive in the war, but added that Russia is trying to demonstrate to the West that it is in the war "for the long haul" in the hopes that Western aid for Ukraine will wane.
This would be Putin's "only real shot at some kind of victory," though Galeotti expects the Russian leader to be disappointed in any hopes that Ukraine aid will dry up.
At its core, the Russian command shakeup provides confirmation that "there will be serious offensives coming, and that even Putin recognizes that poor coordination has been an issue," Galeotti wrote.
And for Gerasimov, the general must now take the reins of commanding a war that has left Russia with an estimated personnel death toll of nearly 114,000 and various embarrassing losses.
Newsweek reached out to Russia's Defense Ministry for comment.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Zoe Strozewski is a Newsweek reporter based in New Jersey. Her focus is reporting on U.S. and global politics. Zoe ... Read more
