'Concerning' Disappearance of Natural Snow at Ski Resorts by Century's End

Many popular ski spots might become unusable by the end of the century due to climate change.

Thirteen percent of ski areas around the world—about one in eight—are expected to lose all their natural snow cover by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, in which CO2 doubles from current levels, according to a new paper in the journal PLoS ONE.

This will not only affect those who enjoy using the slopes but also impact local economies that rely on the ski tourist trade, as well as damaging alpine and mountain ecosystems.

The paper predicts snow cover days for various major skiing regions under low, high and very high emissions futures, forecasting changes between now and 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100.

Under the high emissions scenario, "13 percent of all current ski areas are projected to completely lose natural annual snow cover and one-fifth will experience a reduction of more than 50 percent by 2071–2100 relative to historic baselines," the authors wrote.

They also found that by 2071–2100 under a high emissions scenario, the Rocky Mountains were expected to see a 23 percent decline in annual snow cover days compared to historical baselines, while the Appalachians would see a 37 percent drop.

Mountains elsewhere in the world are expected to be worse hit, with a 42 percent decline in the European Alps, a 43 percent decline in South America's Andes and a 50 percent decline in the Japanese Alps.

The southern hemisphere is forecast to be impacted the most strongly, with a 51 percent decline in annual snow cover days in the Southern Alps of New Zealand and a massive 78 percent drop in the Australian Alps.

This is occurring due to the effects of climate change, as warmer air temperatures mean that water in the clouds falls as rain rather than snow.

"Ongoing warming causes a shift from solid to liquid precipitation and precipitation will additionally decline under future climate conditions in many mountain regions such as the European Alps. Hence, climate change affects snow depth and duration negatively," the authors wrote.

The high emissions scenario that these predictions occur within is known as SSP3-7.0, and is one of five possible scenarios for the future forecast by a U.N. climate panel report. Under this scenario, CO2 levels are forecast to double from current levels and temperatures may rise by 6.5 degrees F by 2100. Under the very high emissions scenario, these predictions of snow cover may be even more sparse.

The paper suggests that as current ski areas lose their snow cover, the industry will move northwards and to higher elevations, increasing human presence and transport higher in the mountains. This combination of factors may pose a major threat for biodiversity, the paper suggests, as high altitudes are often hotspots for biodiversity and especially vulnerable species.

"Alpine plants are known to only slowly recover from disturbances. Moreover, indirect effects on alpine species are likely. For instance, ski areas are associated with an anticipation of plant phenology, potentially inducing a mismatch between plant blooming and herbivore activity. Biodiversity conservation should be aware of the potential trajectories, not only of climate warming per se, but also of the implications of climate change for skiing," the authors wrote.

"We expect conflicts between nature and skiers to increase with ongoing climate change."

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