Political analysts have largely staked the possible outcome of the 2022 midterm elections for the U.S. Senate, Congress and governorships around either party's national momentum in the polls, with the expectation that Republicans or Democrats in battleground states like Arizona or Ohio could find themselves in a "winner take all" scenario where the party on top ultimately wins every election in the state.
As Republicans have begun to make up ground in polling around the country, some are saying that split-ticket voters—voters who support a candidate from one party in one race, but a different party in another—could be the deciding factor in a number of those battleground states, potentially bolstering Democrats' chances at a time when state and national politics are statistically more polarized.
"When we think about our politics more generally, these voters are the depolarizing force in our politics," Liam Kerr, co-founder of the Democratic-backed Welcome PAC, told Newsweek. "We need to be looking at what we need to do to elevate these voters."
In swing states like Arizona, some—like the Cook Political Report's Amy Walter this week—have projected the results of the state's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races are likely to be closely in-sync with one another due not only to the high visibility of the race, but the nationalized issues at play in both elections. Polling averages show a 7-point disparity between the leading candidate in the Senate race, Democrat Mark Kelly, and Kari Lake, a Republican who is running for governor.
Kerr, however, says it's the context and quality of a candidate that makes the most difference to their success in a highly polarized environment.
During the 2018 midterm elections, 13 of the 18 states with both a U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race on the ballot saw the Republican Senate nominee receive fewer votes than their party's gubernatorial nominee, with some states exhibiting disparities as high as nearly 17 percentage points.
In some races, that turnout—and the type of candidates running in the race—made all the difference.
In Texas in 2018, Democratic Representative Beto O'Rourke only narrowly lost his bid to unseat Republican Senator Ted Cruz in the Senate race, while fellow Democrat Lupe Valdez was defeated by Republican Governor Greg Abbott by a double-digit margin in the governor's race, despite both races having a similar number of voters weighing in.
A slightly different story was seen in Ohio, where Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown won his race against scandal-laden Republican Representative Jim Renacci by 7 points, even as Republican Mike DeWine defeated his Democratic opponent by 4 points to become governor. Though both elections were statewide, approximately 8.1 percent of DeWine voters did not vote for Renacci against Brown.
"I think what we see with many split-ticket voters is it really becomes about the person, not the party, in some of these races," said Kerr. "You can project onto a person that you like more and that you feel cares about you, and who will fight for you on the issues."
The context of the race at the state level helps too. In Democratically-led New York, polling has shown Republican Representative Lee Zeldin, running for governor against Democrat Kathy Hochul, surging in recent weeks on a message driven by Democrats' role in exacerbating crime and inflation in a state with the nation's highest overall tax burden, and still struggling with the ripple effects of a recently enacted cash bail reform program.
In Pennsylvania's Senate race, Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican, remains highly competitive amid questions around his opponent, Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman's health, while Democratic incumbent Governor Tom Wolf remains the clear favorite in his reelection contest against his Republican opponent, Doug Mastriano.
In other battleground states like Wisconsin, polling shows clear disparities between Democrats Tony Evers—who remains in a statistical tie in his bid to remain governor—and U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes, who trails his opponent by three points in a campaign that has seen significant advertising investment alongside unrelenting attention from state and national media.
Meanwhile, Georgia's gubernatorial race where incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp is running against Democrat Stacey Abrams, appears to increasingly be looking like a lock for Republicans, while scandal-laden Senate candidate Herschel Walker, a Republican, remains questionable to defeat Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock.
Ultimately, Kerr said, voters deserve more credit than pollsters give them on issues like the economy. Recent national polling has shown a sizeable percentage of the population trusts neither party to handle it capably, leaving ample wiggle room for candidates to denounce—or support—their party's position.
"I think where the issues become really important is they create a way for a candidate to distance themselves from their party and have appeal as an individual," said Kerr. "Oftentimes, that means finding a really salient issue that matters to voters and showing that you're closer to them than your party is."
He added: "You can find an issue that these independent voters really care about that they don't trust your party on to distinguish yourself from your party on that issue. That gives you that independence. That differentiation matters."
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Nick Reynolds is a senior politics reporter at Newsweek. A native of Central New York, he previously worked as a ... Read more
