With just weeks remaining before the anticipated midterm elections in November, Democrat Stacey Abrams is still trailing in new polling that offers a potentially bleak outlook for her chances of beating Brian Kemp in a rematch with the Republican governor.
A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Georgia News Collaborative survey released Wednesday showed Kemp leading with 51 percent of support compared to Abrams' 41 percent. Another 6 percent of poll respondents were undecided, while 2 percent said they backed Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel.
Abrams is running against Kemp in the race for Georgia's gubernatorial seat for the second time after losing to the Republican in 2018 by less than two percentage points. Despite her close brush with victory years ago, which would have made her the first Democrat to hold the office since 2003, additional recent polling indicates that Abrams may not win her second matchup with Kemp.
FiveThirtyEight's current poll average shows Kemp leading with 50.5 percent of support compared to Abrams 44.9 percent. Some singular polls have clocked smaller or larger leads for the Republican.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed an extremely tight race between Kemp, 50 percent, and Abrams, 49 percent. This margin was "essentially unchanged" from an earlier September 14 poll that showed Kemp with 50 percent and Abrams with 48 percent.
"Kemp vs. Abrams...too close to call, and barely a whisper of change from four weeks ago," Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.
On the other hand, a new survey released Tuesday by Republican pollster the Trafalgar Group showed Kemp leading with 52.5 percent of support compared to Abrams' 43.6 percent.
"There will be countless polls released between now and Election Day, and we won't be distracted by any of them," Tate Mitchell, a press secretary for Kemp's campaign, told Newsweek in a statement on the Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey. "Our campaign is running like we're 10 points down and focused on earning the support of Georgia voters on November 8th."
In a Twitter thread on Wednesday about the poll, Lauren Groh-Wargo, Abrams' campaign manager, linked to a Georgia Public Broadcasting (GPB) article that noted the poll didn't weigh results by party identification. The GPB article also pointed to a slight majority, 50.3 percent, of poll respondents self-identifying as Republican, while 42.5 percent identified as Democrats and a smaller 7.2 percent identified as independents.
In comparison, the GPB article cited what it said was an Associated Press VoteCast survey of the 2018 midterms showing a split of 38 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 28 percent independent voters. Newsweek was not immediately able to locate the referenced VoteCast survey for verification.
"When pollsters model Georgia more Republican than Indiana, Republican candidates will do well in polls," Abrams' campaign said in a statement provided to Newsweek. "Other polls, like the Quinnipiac poll today, show the momentum Stacey Abrams is building: the race is tied going into early vote, and Georgians should get ready to cast their ballots next week."
"Kemp is an extreme and dangerous politician pushing voter suppression and restricting women's liberty," the statement added. "Voters support Stacey Abrams' plan for education, housing, health care and a good living: one Georgia where everyone can thrive."
Updated 10/12/2022, 2:40 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with comments Abrams' campaign.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Zoe Strozewski is a Newsweek reporter based in New Jersey. Her focus is reporting on U.S. and global politics. Zoe ... Read more
