White Christmas Map Shows 19 States Most Likely to Have Snow

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a map showing the states with the highest probability of a white Christmas, although El Niño could sway the odds of where snow falls this year.

NOAA posted the map on Monday, which shows states colored in various shades of blue and white that correspond with the probability of those locations experiencing snow on Christmas, according to historical data from 1991 to 2020. Nineteen states had the highest probability of snow, while 33 states had some probability.

"What are your chances for a white Christmas? Find places that have the best chance of snowfall, according to the historical record," NOAA posted on X, formerly Twitter.

The 19 states with the highest probability of a white Christmas, according to historical records, are Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

However, many of those states only saw snow in high-terrain areas, which was the case for California, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico. AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek that the probability of municipal areas in those states enjoying a snowy Christmas was much lower.

Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine had a higher historical average of snow in metropolitan areas. However, El Niño hinders the probability of snowfall this year.

El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warm ocean waters in the Pacific Ocean. It began this summer after La Niña culminated in March.

"The northern tier states will have a smaller chance than usual" of seeing snow on December 25, Kines told Newsweek. Typically, those states have a 70 to 80 percent chance of snow on Christmas, and Kines said the odds could be closer to 50 percent this year.

Chances will be higher for areas like Colorado, Utah and Nevada if temperatures are cold enough, according to Kines.

Kines added that the northern Plains states from South Dakota to Minnesota will have a "decent shot" at having a snowy holiday, as well as Vermont and New York state.

However, cities along the I-95 corridor in the northeast will likely miss out on snow again this year, including New York City, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston and Washington, D.C. The region has experienced less snowfall than average over the last few years.

"It's good news for those who have to travel, but for those who are looking for white Christmas or even the skiers who want snow, especially in the northeast, it's not looking optimistic," Kines said.