U.S. President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping of China are set to butt heads over long-running tensions in the Taiwan Strait when they meet in San Francisco on Wednesday for their first face-to-face talks in a year.
The leaders of the two superpowers will seek to walk away from the bilateral meeting—taking place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit—with a consensus on preventing military conflict over the perennial issue.
Communication between American and Chinese forces is scarce despite frequent run-ins at sea and in the air. A number of factors, to include the infamous Chinese spy balloon's flight over the U.S. mainland, have prevented Washington and Beijing from effectively curbing high tensions since the last Biden-Xi summit in Bali.
Taiwan will be at the center of discussions, but Taipei has privately expressed concern about the nature of the talks and their implications for Biden's past commitments to defend the island from an armed attack.
A senior Taiwanese official, who spoke to Newsweek on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said there was unease in Taipei about Biden's position on cross-strait relations, and how his subsequent public remarks at APEC could impact Taiwan's upcoming presidential election.
However, a U.S. official told the Financial Times this week that Biden would only amplify existing U.S. positions rather than express outright opposition to Taiwanese independence—something Xi's entourage has been pushing for as part of the Chinese leader's visit.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory, but the Communist Party leadership has never controlled the self-ruled island in its seven decades in power in Beijing.
As it relates to Taiwan, the outcome of the Biden-Xi talks may be more modest than many expect, with an emphasis on upholding the status quo and maintaining open lines for crisis communication.
Taiwan's Foreign Ministry expects Washington would keep it in the loop.
"Taiwan and the U.S. have a high level of mutual trust and friendship, and the channels of communication are quite smooth; Taiwan and the U.S. have also maintained close contact with each other during the past U.S.-China talks," Jeff Liu, a ministry spokesperson, told Newsweek.
Biden and Xi will not issue a joint statement, according to the FT, a sign of just how far apart the two sides remain on fundamental issues.
Taiwan's presidential and legislative polls next January and the U.S. elections later in 2024 have increased the urgency to manage tensions through dialogue.
"With Taiwan's looming presidential election and public confrontation flaring between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea, the near-term risk of tensions between Washington and Beijing escalating over both issues is high," said Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.
"The Xi-Biden meeting provides an important opportunity for the two leaders to convey to each other that neither seeks to overturn the status quo or kinetic conflict at this juncture," Hsiao told Newsweek.
As usual, Taiwan's political stakeholders, as well as members of the public and media, are expected to closely scrutinize post-summit reactions from both sides.
"Each [political] party will frame the talks to its advantage. They will have very different interpretations of the talks. Opposition will blame the incumbent for creating instability in the Taiwan Strait; the incumbent will argue that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan's security remains solid," Ping-Kuei Chen, an associate professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei, told Newsweek.
Chen said Biden's emphasis on the long-held cross-strait status quo may deter both Taiwan and China from making any rash moves at a sensitive time.
"Xi would like to gain something from this meeting. It is not uncommon for the president to reiterate U.S. policy toward Taiwan after a high-level meeting. But I think Biden will also emphasize the status quo, a move that deters both sides of the Taiwan Strait." Chen said.
Wen-Ti Sung, a lecturer at the Australian National University, told Newsweek that Taiwan might be reassured that the talks aren't "promoting cooperation at the expense of competition," but rather erecting guardrails in the geopolitical competition between the two powers.
However, Biden's choice to underscore the status quo may not be enough for Beijing, which prefers stronger language.
"The Chinese side is more concerned about issues of principle and U.S. commitments on major issues, such as the U.S. reaffirmation of the 'four noes and one without' and opposition to Taiwan independence, while the U.S. is more concerned about specific issues such as fentanyl and the national debt, and there is a greater likelihood that it will talk about Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian issue," Da Wei, director of the Center for Strategic and Security Studies at Tsinghua University, told China's state-run Global Times newspaper.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Aadil Brar is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers international security, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian ... Read more
