Can Taylor Swift Conquer China?

Taylor Swift has had an incredible year, from her record-breaking Eras Tour and subsequent concert movie, to finding love with NFL star Travis Kelce.

Swift has seen her personal fortune almost double this year, thanks to the tour and movie, to more than $1 billion, according to the magazine Forbes. The singer was just named Time magazine's 'Person of the Year' and has been credited for singlehandedly boosting local economies at every tour stop.

However, Swift raised eyebrows when she decided to skip many Asian countries on her world tour, specifically China, where she is very well loved. Newsweek has contacted Swift's representatives by email for comment.

Swift does still plan to release her Eras film in China. Posters promoting it have started popping up in Chinese cities, indicating it is likely to be given the green light by government regulators, per Variety magazine.

"Swifties (the name of her fans) in China have been asking, 'Is it really going to happen?'" Oscar Zhou, a media-studies lecturer at the University of Kent in England, told Newsweek from Shanghai, the country's biggest city. Zhou added that the singer has a "special destiny" with China.

Sherlock Swifties

The Swifties have been scouring the internet for clues to when Eras drops. Some think it will be on or before December 13, Swift's birthday. This is when it also hits streaming services, which increases the chances of it being pirated internationally, reducing any potential box-office takings in China.

Zhou said that the release date is a "hot topic discussion on Chinese social media." A lot of fans are predicting the film will premiere in April, when Taylor has a gap in her tour schedule after performing in nearby Singapore.

"Which means she could come to China [for the premiere]," Zhou added. "Her fans really do the research and are trying to figure out when could be a good slot for her to come here."

It remains to be seen if Eras will have the same success—it's made $250 million globally in just a matter of weeks, per IMDbPro—in China. Box-office performance there may be stymied by the piracy epidemic and growing anti-Western sentiment.

Taylor's '1989'

Before digging into the economics of it all, it is important to understand just how much Swift is adored in China. It is not just because "she's awesome," according to Jonathan Sullivan, director of China Programs at the University of Nottingham in England.

"Everything that happens around Taylor is a global event, and the Chinese public is very enthusiastic about participating in global experiences and conversations, even more so as domestic and international politics narrow," Sullivan told Newsweek.

More specifically, some of Swift's work has resonance in Chinese culture. She first toured China with her album Red, the national color of the country, which made "people feel like there's a connection with her," said Zhou.

Then, there is her award-winning album, 1989. This was the year of the infamous Tiananmen Square uprising in Beijing, China, which Zhou said was "the one special year for Chinese people." These ongoing incidental connections have helped endear Swift to the Chinese, especially in a complicated cultural market, Zhou added.

Swift really appeals to many young Chinese women who admire her qualities of independence, political views, and, of course, because she's wholesome, said Sullivan.

Swift also fits the Chinese archetype for Western female beauty, and her music is vastly different from the K-Pop and Mandarin pop that dominates China's charts.

Geopolitics and Swift

It's these qualities that help Swift avoid being part of the trend of Chinese consumers moving away from Western media content. Political relations between the U.S. and China are not great, and patriotism is on the rise there, which is being reflected in the poorer performances of Western movies and audiences taking in more Chinese content.

"U.S.-China relations are at a low ebb, patriotic passions [are] running high, debates about the appeal or utility of Western culture for China are as salient as ever," Sullivan previously told Newsweek.

Even the simple act of releasing the Eras concert movie could be China's way to signal goodwill since the nascent thaw in U.S.-China diplomacy, according to Sullivan.

Both academics cited the problem of piracy in China but said they did not think it would have much impact on how well Eras does at the box office; the concert movie is an experience, rather than a product.

"For fans, the point is to be there, to dress up, to sing along and savor the community effects. I don't imagine the inevitable pirated versions will make a lot of difference to ticket sales, which will be very substantial," Sullivan said.

Zhou added the film release will be an opportunity to educate people on intellectual property and "doing the right thing" by supporting the movie at the cinema.

Taylor's Politics

One element of Swift's brand that could pose a risk to Eras in China is also one of her biggest attractions to the young Chinese fans; her outspoken views on issues such as LGBTQ+ rights, feminism and politics.

"Her support for LGBTQ+ rights and feminism really contributes to her popularity in China," said Zhou. He added that, while it is common for musicians to be outspoken, people love to hear it from Swift because "she's the girl next door."

But Swift will have to toe the line carefully when in negotiations to get her movie into China "without 'hurting the feelings' or 'angering the Chinese people," according to Sullivan. So long as she manages to avoid hot-button topics such as Taiwan and unrest in Hong Kong, Swift should be fine, both experts said.

Taylor the Game Changer

Another sign that Eras stands to do well in China comes amid two ground-breaking changes in the film industry, both there and in the U.S. Firstly, Swift and her team produced Eras and directly negotiated with AMC theaters to screen it, cutting out the middle man in the distribution system. This move has the potential to upend Hollywood systems as we know them, with even Beyoncé following suit to release her own concert movie, Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé.

AMC described it as a "new line of business," and will share get 43 percent of the profits while Swift will get the remaining 57 percent. Its previous majority shareholder, Wanda Films, has strong connections to China's biggest cinema chain, which could help get Eras over the line, according to Variety.

Then, over in China, Eras could be the first movie screened under the country's new 'branch distribution' policy. Films used to be entirely distributed by the state apparatus, but the government is trialing handing over that task to the private sector.

Alibaba Pictures, a subsidiary of e-commerce giant Alibaba, is reportedly in talks to distribute Eras. As a result of having a direct hand in negotiations, this could make a big difference to when and in how many cinemas Eras will screen.

Whatever happens, Chinese Swifties are beyond pumped at the prospect of Eras arriving there, as is Zhou. "I'm personally very excited for this to happen," he said.