Climate change and a rare combination of factors associated with El Niño will drive an active tornado season in 2024 that sees Tornado Alley expanding to include more areas, according to one expert forecaster.
Approximately 1,200 tornadoes blow through the U.S. each year, AccuWeather reported, with many of those occurring in Tornado Alley—an area in the central U.S. coined by meteorologists in the mid-1900s. The term originally referred to a swath of land centered around Kansas and Oklahoma, extending from South Dakota to northern Texas where tornadoes frequently occurred. But meteorologists have since considered that Tornado Alley seems to be shifting the last few years, partially influenced by climate change.
Extreme meteorologist Reed Timmer thinks "expansion" is a better term for how Tornado Alley is changing, given that the Great Plains will continue to present prime conditions for tornadoes to form.
The changing climate is now also presenting ideal conditions for tornadoes in other states.
"With climate change and the Gulf of Mexico always being so warm, it does seem like the moisture availability for these storm systems is usually not an issue anymore, even during winter months," Timmer told Newsweek.
That means there will be more tornadoes occurring outside of tornado season, which is typically in the spring and summer for most states. Timmer said he believes that the changing climate is pushing a Tornado Alley expansion south and east—into Louisiana, Florida and further into Texas.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter also voiced similar beliefs in a 2022 report by the forecast service.
"When you look at the trends in where tornadoes have occurred in recent years, it's very clear that there have been more tornadoes farther south and farther east away from what people have typically known as the Tornado Alley across the Plains," Porter said.
The 2024 tornado season is shaping up to be an "active" one, influenced by the state of El Niño and other climate factors. Timmer predicted that 1,207 tornadoes would occur in 2024, which is slightly above average. The states with the highest forecasted tornadoes are Texas with 150 and Oklahoma and Kansas with 90 apiece.
Timmer forecasts Louisiana and Arkansas will see above-average tornado figures this year, at 55 and 50, respectively, and Florida, at 65 forecasted, also is on the upper end of its average.
This year, El Niño's warm weather patterns in the Pacific will be coupled with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), or a fluctuation of atmospheric pressure and sea-surface temperatures that occurs in the North Pacific. Timmer called the two climate patterns a "rare case" that could cause an active tornado season across the Great Plains and Southern Plains.
"It does seem when that's happened in history, [tornadoes are] active in the Southern Plains in the spring, and it's active into the southern U.S. for tornadoes during winter," Timmer said.
Forecasters, however, anticipate that the East and mid-South in the U.S. will have less severe weather. The pairing of the NPO and El Niño could influence tornadoes to hug the Gulf Coast and hit in southeast Texas as well as Florida's western coast.
A similar phenomenon happened in the 1997-98 El Niño season, which saw one of the most damaging and destructive tornado outbreaks in Florida's history, as dozens were killed and hundreds injured near Kissimmee.
About the writer
Anna Skinner is a Newsweek senior reporter based in Indianapolis. Her focus is reporting on the climate, environment and weather ... Read more
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