It's almost a forecast certainty now that a tropical cyclone will develop in the Gulf of Mexico within the next few days, moving north toward landfall along the Gulf Coast -- perhaps Florida. If the system, now dubbed Invest 91 by the National Hurricane Center, becomes a tropical storm it will be named Michael. But it's what might happen to the tropical depression or Tropical Storm Michael soon after landfall along the Gulf Coast that has some forecasters casting a wary eye.
By itself, the tropical cyclone will be capable of heavy, flooding rainfall across the Gulf Coast region it strikes, perhaps as early as Wednesday of next week, according to the latest models. But the forecast shows flooding could be widespread and significant, ultimately reaching to parts of the Northeast. The latest forecast models show the system's path could lead across the Florida panhandle, into Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, before tracking up the East Coast drenching flood-stricken areas along the way.
"The tropical feature is likely to interact or be absorbed by a non-tropical storm later next week," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg. "As this merge occurs, a copious amount of rain may fall, which could renew flooding problems in parts of the South and perhaps portions of the Northeast."
Accuweather reported that "unusually high river and small stream levels, combined with soggy ground in parts of the East, are a perfect recipe for renewed flooding…should any tropical or moisture-rich non-tropical storm come calling."
The National Hurricane Center gives the system extremely high odds of developing into a tropical cyclone, according to the latest forecast update Saturday morning. The NHC said there's a 70 percent chance it will develop within two days and a 90 percent chance it will develop within five days. The NHC mentions that Gulf Coast interests should monitor the storm.
"Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday while the system moves slowly northward," the National Hurricane Center said. "Interests in the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days."
"The majority of our forecast guidance suggests whatever forms – either just a tropical disturbance with a surge of moisture, tropical depression or tropical storm – would then be drawn northward and could eventually be a threat to parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast next week," weather.com reported Saturday.
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