The 2024 election looks very much like it will be a rerun of 2020—despite the fact that to many people, Donald Trump and Joe Biden represent the institutional dysfunction that has gripped the nation's capital since Barack Obama left office. According to Gallup, a new high of 43 percent of U.S. voters now declare themselves independent; their putative leaders have chased them out of the political parties they once called "home."
The sentiment for an alternative to Biden and Trump is building; the idea of a centrist third-party ticket featuring nationally recognizable current or former elected officials like ex-Maryland GOP Gov. Larry Hogan and outgoing West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin polls well. Yet in November, it won't matter at all. The last candidate to win votes in the Electoral College running as something other than a Democrat or Republican was George Wallace—in 1968.
We're facing a rematch of Biden and Trump. And based on the early exit polls out of Iowa, Trump's electoral base among the Republicans has grown since 2016. According to the early exit polls, the largest bloc of caucus-goers—52 percent—identified themselves as "very conservative" while 37 percent said they were "somewhat conservative." That's who the modern GOP is. The rout of the so-called Eastern Establishment that began with Barry Goldwater in 1964 is long over.
And like it or not, conservatives like Trump.
His remaining challengers—former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida governor Ron DeSantis—both have enough wealthy supporters to keep them in the race through New Hampshire and Super Tuesday should they choose to do so. But why would they want to? It only delays the inevitable and keeps the GOP organization from going after Biden full-on.
The early exits in Iowa also tell us that Trump won big among those looking for a nominee who "shares my values" and "fights for people like me." That, in a fundamental way, ratifies the assessment of former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who proclaimed the results in Iowa showed Trump to be the leader of a significant national movement responding to the dictates of an out-of-step U.S. political establishment that doesn't care about or acknowledges the concerns of rank-and-file voters.
The numbers out of Iowa suggest Trump can and should continue focusing on softening up his most likely general election opponent before either party has its national nominating convention. To the extent they are still campaigning, Haley and DeSantis must draw distinctions between each other and Trump before they can get to Biden.
Don't be surprised if the general election begins early. Vagaries of federal campaign spending rules aside, if the Trump vs. Biden re-match is as likely as it now looks to be, it would make perfect sense for the former president to begin his ad barrage against the current president now to help shape the atmosphere when voters start casting ballots well in advance of Election Day. And that's despite the latest numbers showing how each man may be chasing voters out of their respective parties.
After all, that's what Biden has been doing to Trump in speeches and online virtually since he was sworn into office. It's a good strategy that works.
Newsweek Contributing Editor Peter Roff is a veteran political writer and columnist who appears regularly on U.S. and international media platforms. He can be reached at roffcolumns AT gmail.com and followed on social media @TheRoffDraft.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
