Exclusive: Why Reported UFO Sightings Will Drop

The Pentagon may be investigating hundreds of reported UFO sightings, but the number of people coming forward with tales of possible encounters is set to drop, according to the former head of the Defense Department's dedicated investigative unit.

The total number of "unidentified anomalous phenomena," or UAP, reported by the U.S. military, intelligence officials and members of the public will decrease as military personnel and the public understand more about technologies under development across the world, Sean Kirkpatrick, the former director of the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), told Newsweek.

The term UFO, or unidentified flying objects, has been dropped in government parlance in favor of UAPs. The Pentagon established its All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office in July 2022, led by Kirkpatrick until December 2023.

There is an unawareness of state-of-the-art technologies, which can be mistaken for an anomalous sighting, Kirkpatrick said. Classified technology in research and development phases—from both domestic sources or foreign organizations—could be "mistaken for extraterrestrials because they don't understand what they're looking at."

"There is a lot of classified information we have uncovered that are real, non- extraterrestrial programs that have had unauthorized disclosures that we have pulled together and are providing to leadership to make a decision on what to do," Kirkpatrick said.

But this information gap between sighting and understanding is filled by people with "vivid imaginations," Kirkpatrick argued. "If the government that owns that program does not have an appropriate explanation or story, then its going to be filled by the public imagination."

There is also "training issue," based largely in how military personnel report a suspected sighting, Kirkpatrick added. "There's a large number of those cases that we had that are just balloons—and the pilots know their balloons—but they report them as UAPs because they didn't know what else to do," Kirkpatrick said. Once this changes, UAP reports will dip as the false alarms are filtered out, he added.

UAP reporting has been on the rise. Many sightings are reported along the east and west coasts of the U.S., over the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific.

Last January, the Office for the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) said it was investigating a total of 510 UAP sightings, more than triple the number recorded in its previous report, published in 2021. It included new sightings as well as ones that were "either discovered or reported late."

Just over half of the new sightings were deemed "unremarkable," but of the 171 remaining sightings, some "appear to have demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance capabilities, and require further analysis."

In October 2023, an updated AARO report, covering sightings between end of August 2022 until April 30, 2023, and any other previously omitted cases, said the U.S. government received a total of 291 reports in those eight months. AARO is now investigating more than 800 cases, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, told the media.

Many reported sightings come from military personnel, particularly the U.S. air force. Unknown objects, regardless of their origin, can pose a significant national security threat, and could put countries hostile to the U.S. at an advantage, Kirkpatrick said.

Military personnel have also offered up some of the most explosive statements on UAPs. Former U.S. intelligence officer David Grusch has claimed that "non-human" objects and "intact and partially intact vehicles" had been collected and hidden by the U.S. government. Grusch told NewsNation that the U.S. government had "quite a number" of these non-human craft and that "sometimes you encounter dead pilots."

Grusch then told the House Oversight Committee in July 2023 that he had been barred from secret investigations run by the U.S. government.

He also informed lawmakers that he had not seen evidence of any alien spacecraft himself, but his testimony was based on interviews with "high-level intelligence officials." He has claimed to have seen official documents and compelling photo evidence.

The Pentagon has denied the accusations, saying it has not found "any verifiable information to substantiate claims that any programs regarding the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials have existed in the past or exist currently." Kirkpatrick echoed this statement.

But that has not stopped the flurry of dramatic outbursts. Last year, Tennessee Congressman Tim Burchett told Newsweek that he believed "we have recovered a craft at some point and possible beings."

"I think that a lot of that's being reverse-engineered right now, but we just don't understand it," he added in early March. Florida representative Matt Gaetz said he saw images of an object he was "not able to attach to any human capability, either from the United States or from any of our adversaries."

Kirkpatrick is critical of these statements. AARO has the authority to receive information of all classifications, but many figures making jaw-dropping statements have long refused to co-operate with the office, he said. Such a reluctance is suspicious, he said, adding he would "criticize any of the policymakers that enable that behavior by giving it a platform, instead of making use of the tools that they put in place to go in and investigate."

Mistrust appears rife. A majority of U.S. eligible voters believe the U.S. government knows more about UFOs than the public ahead of an investigation into claims about the existence of spacecraft, polling conducted for Newsweek revealed in July 2023, ahead of Grusch's comments to Congress.

There have been many calls for transparency in the past year, coming hand-in-hand with allegations of a governmental cover-up.

Last year, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer introduced legislation to force transparency related to UAPs. They are "of immense interest and curiosity to the American people," Schumer said, adding "the United States government has gathered a great deal of information about UAPs over many decades but has refused to share it with the American people."

Earlier this month, California Democrat Rep. Robert Garcia introduced a bill designed to protect those who report UAPs from any form of reprisal and establish new procedures for reporting UAP sightings with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).