The UK could face a decade of economic isolation while dealing with the aftermath of a potential Brexit, according to business groups.
The president of the CBI, one of the UK's major business lobbies, will tonight use his speech at the organisation's annual dinner to call for British businesses to publicly back membership of the European Union and warn that a Brexit could leave Britain facing a similar path as Switzerland.
Since a 1992 referendum in which Switzerland rejected EU membership, the country has been involved in a series of bilateral negotiations to gain access to the European single market, the first of which wasn't signed until 1999.
However, further trade deals weren't signed until 2004 and there are currently around 100 agreements controlling trade between Switzerland and the bloc, which is Geneva's biggest trade partner.
David Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU before the end of 2017, though opposition candidates and business leaders have called for it to happen earlier.
CBI president Sir Mike Rake will tell an audience at dinner that "no one has yet set out a credible alternative future to EU membership" and that the different route, such as that followed by Switzerland, involves complying with EU principles while having little influence over rules governing the single market.
The CBI represents almost 200,000 businesses and 140 trade associations, which employ around one-third of the UK's private sector workforce.
According to Lucy Thomas, campaign director at the pro-European group Business for New Europe, negotiations between the UK and EU member states to establish free trade agreements could take anywhere up to a decade and would have the effect of isolating British businesses in the meantime.
Under Article 50 of the Maastricht Treaty, the UK will have to sit out of two years of negotiations between other member states following a decision to leave the union.
"Once those two years under Article 50 are over there's no guarantee that all the UK's trade deals would be finalised," says Thomas. "The UK would not be in the negotiation room while the rest of the EU figures out what they are willing to give us. Suddenly, we've lost all of our bargaining power."
European banks have recently voiced concerns about a potential Brexit and hinted they could move operations out of London in such an event.
German giant Deutsche Bank, which employs 9,000 people in the UK, has set up a working group to review its UK operations in the event of a vote in favour of leaving the EU. HSBC is also considering moving its headquarters out of London, with bank officials citing the "economic uncertainty" surrounding the UK's EU membership as a contributing factor.
Thomas expects that many other banks will review their UK operations if the financial passport, which gives them access to the European market from London, becomes defunct following a decision to leave.
"Why would they stay here if they can't do the trade they need to?" she says.
Opponents of the UK's current deal with the EU are calling for reform and greater self-determination for British businesses which they claim are currently restricted by excessive amounts of European bureaucracy.
Robert Oxley, campaign director at Business for Britain, which campaigns for fundamental changes to the UK's membership of the EU, says leaving the EU would actually speed up the process of securing free trade deals.
"The EU has a terrible track record on the speed in which it has secured trade deals. One of the key powers that many businesses want to see returned is the capability to conduct trade relations back home at a far faster pace," says Oxley.
The UK could pursue a number of different trade paths in the case of a Brexit. A report by policy thinktank Open Europe predicts that, in a worst case scenario, UK GDP could be 2.2% worse off by 2030 if Britain fails to strike a trade deal with the EU.
However, the report also suggests that the UK could see a 1.6% rise in GDP by 2030 if it is able to seal a favourable Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU, pursues deregulation and opens up to more global trade.
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Conor is a staff writer for Newsweek covering Africa, with a focus on Nigeria, security and conflict.
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