Russian units have gone on the offensive in southeastern Ukraine in an apparent bid to distract Kyiv's troops and draw them away from frontline breakthroughs that threaten Moscow's control over the southern portion of the country.
The Institute for the Study of War said on Tuesday that Russian forces "launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast," two areas that have seen particularly heavy fighting since the opening of Ukraine's counteroffensive operation in early June.
The fresh Russian attacks, the think tank said, "are likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces away from the Robotyne area," where Ukrainian troops won the most promising gains in months of heavy fighting and raised the prospect of Kyiv's forces driving southwest towards the Russian logistical hub at Tokmak.
Southwest of Orikhiv in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, ISW cited Russian milbloggers claiming an advance of around 1.2 miles. The Russian effort around Avdiivka, the think tank said, is being portrayed by milbloggers "as a significant offensive effort aimed at encircling the Ukrainian force grouping in Avdiivka and capturing the city."
Avdiivka is one of the most heavily fortified Ukrainian-held locations in the Donetsk region and a key strategic prize. ISW suggested that a successful encirclement and capture of the settlement and the Ukrainian grouping there "would very likely require more forces than Russia has currently dedicated to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City effort."
"Russian forces have also conducted grinding offensive operations for relatively minimal territorial gains near Avdiivka for the past year and a half of the war, and the Russian military command is likely aware that an effort to capture Avdiivka would require more and higher-quality units than those currently deployed in the area," the ISW's Tuesday bulletin said.
The Russian offensives around Avdiivka and Orikhiv, the ISW surmised, are "likely aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces and preventing Ukrainian command from transferring reserves to critical areas of the front in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
Ukrainian commanders and political leaders have been sounding the alarm in recent days. "In general, the enemy continues to press in Avdiivka and Maryinka directions," Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for the joint press center of Ukraine's eastern military grouping said on Tuesday.
Andriy Yermak, the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, wrote on Telegram that Avdiivka "is under massive attacks by Russian artillery and aviation."
The head of the town's administration, Vitaliy Barabash, meanwhile, said: "For over a year, there has been the danger that [Avdiivka] can be occupied, but now the situation has worsened rapidly." Barabash added that Moscow's forces are now seeking to besiege the settlement using "all means."
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David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
