Ukraine Bracing for Russia's Renewed Assault on Kharkiv

Russia is "having some success" in its push on the northern edge of the frontlines in eastern Ukraine, conceded Ukrainian commander Timur, who goes by his call sign like many Ukrainian fighters.

But Kyiv is ready for Moscow, Timur, who heads up the 13th Brigade of Ukraine's National Guard deployed close to the northeastern city of Kupiansk, told Newsweek on Tuesday.

Ukraine is building up defensive lines in the brigade's area of responsibility in the northeast, and strengthening Kyiv's logistics in the hope of keeping these lines strong, Timur said.

Russia is fresh from a win in the shape of the capture of Avdiivka, the eastern Donetsk city that had weathered a decade on the front lines. It also spent the past weeks bearing down on the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions even as it threw resources at Avdiivka.

The attacks around Kupiansk, a key railway hub, are part of what the U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), termed a "cohesive multi-axis offensive operation" sweeping down the front from Kupiansk and past the Russian-controlled cities of Svatove and Kreminna.

The Kremlin's efforts around Kharkiv and Luhansk include "attacks along four parallel axes" that could provide real wins for Russia, the think tank said last week.

Avdiivka was a symbol of long-standing Ukrainian resistance, and its absorption behind the front lines was a real blow to Kyiv. In the Kharkiv region, the stakes are also high—Russian advances place Moscow closer to settlements that were taken by Russia in early 2022, only for Ukraine to roll back the lines in its blitzing counteroffensive later that year.

It was one of the most successful periods of the war for Ukraine, and Russia retaking these areas would pack an additional punch against Kyiv.

"Russia can't take control of this territory again," Oleksandr Baulin, head of one of Ukraine's military administrations close to the frontlines near Kupiansk, told Newsweek in a conversation translated by his wife, Iryna.

Ukraine is determined to stop Russia's march westward, even as the Kremlin switches up its tactics—Moscow's fighters are starting to "storm in small groups" during poor weather conditions, the National Guard's Timur said.

"But they don't do it very well," Timur quipped, adding that the fighters are picked up by Kyiv's artillery and drones as soon as they pass into open spaces.

"But we need to create opportunities to destroy the enemy," Timur added. "Our success is not in enduring another onslaught."

"Now the task is to make Ukraine the worst war Russians have ever had," the commander said.

Yet Russia is determined in Ukraine's north. Moscow is "massively attacking" around Kupiansk, Artem Lysohor, the Ukrainian head of the Luhansk region's administration, said on Tuesday. Ukraine is facing a "real onslaught" with more than 20 attacks each day, he said.

Ukraine's military said on Tuesday that its forces had "repelled" 22 Russian attacks on the front lines close to Kupiansk, mostly around the village of Synkivka, to the northeast of Kupiansk.

Russia's Defense Ministry said in its own statement on Tuesday that it had secured "more advantageous positions around Synkivka and nearby Ivanivka."

And Ukraine, now in its third year of all-out war, is contending with ammunition hunger, and wavering commitments from its biggest supporter on vital military aid.

A $60 billion aid package from the U.S., the single-largest contributor of military aid to Ukraine, has languished in Congress, and new tranches from Kyiv's European allies can't fill its place.

"Ukraine's military was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka after Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition due to dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction," the White House said in a statement earlier this month.

And around half of Western-committed aid to Ukraine does not arrive on time, Ukraine's defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said at the weekend. "Whenever a commitment doesn't come on time, we lose people, we lose territory," he added.

"We are grateful to our Western partners, because without them it would be very difficult," Timur said. "But we still really need ammunition."

Every little bit of aid counts, Baulin said.

Ukraine's fortifications and work to limit Moscow's mobility should help limit Russia's ability to break through in the north, but only if Kyiv has "sufficient firepower to defend itself," according to Frederik Mertens, an analyst with The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.

"Those 155mm rounds are utterly vital," he told Newsweek.

NATO stockpiles of this in-demand round have been depleted by aid packages, and the alliance inked a contract worth $1.2 billion to produce artillery rounds in January.

But European Union officials said in November that the block will fail to come through on its pledge to provide 1 million shells to Ukraine by this spring.

While Ukraine waits for more deliveries, Russia will continue its pushes on areas including close to Kupiansk. Moscow is thought to fire several times more ammunition than Ukraine each day and has put its economy on a war footing to maintain production of ammunition and military equipment.

"Russia will not disappear," Timur added. "We have to make sure that they don't have the opportunity to come here again."