Russian President Vladimir Putin may be losing patience with long-serving Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, according to the latest bulletin from the Institute for the Study of War, as Moscow's forces struggle to contain Ukraine's grinding counteroffensive in the southeast of the country.
ISW's Sunday bulletin cited reporting from the Kremlin Secrets Telegram channel suggesting Putin has set Shoigu a "deadline" by which he must stop the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which is now reportedly pushing to exploit significant gaps forced in Russian defensive lines in fierce fighting underway since early June.
"A Kremlin insider source claimed that Putin reportedly gave Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu a deadline of one month until early October 2023 to improve the situation on the front lines, stop Ukrainian counteroffensives, and have Russian forces regain the initiative to launch an offensive operation against a larger city," ISW wrote.
"The insider's claim, if true, may indicate that the Russian military command may be ordering relentless counterattacks in hopes of forcing the Ukrainian counteroffensive to culminate, even at a high cost to Russian military capabilities," it said.
"The Russian resistance to ceding ground may also be tied to Russian military commanders' and officials' attempts to use the counteroffensive to achieve political goals, or it could result from Putin's micromanagement," the bulletin added.
The Kremlin Secrets Telegram channel even suggested that Putin is lining up a replacement for Shoigu in the form of airborne commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky. This may have already set off another internecine struggle, ISW wrote.
"Russian insider sources and milbloggers who have advocated for Teplinsky claimed that Shoigu has been focusing on setting conditions to convince Putin to remove Teplinsky from command—which would likely be achievable if Shoigu is able to achieve Putin's objectives during the counteroffensive," the bulletin said.
"One pro-Teplinsky channel even claimed that Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had already removed Teplinsky from overseeing the defensive operation in southern Ukraine, although ISW cannot confirm the validity of this claim at this time," it said.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
The consistently underwhelming performance of Russia's ground forces has been humiliating for the Kremlin and the Defense Ministry. Since the collapse of the northern invasion force on the outskirts of Kyiv, Russia's supposedly formidable army has repeatedly been forced into major retreats by Ukrainian offensives.
Russian offensives, meanwhile, have achieved little at high cost. Elite units are thought to have suffered severe casualties, with mass mobilization required to bolster the ranks and continue the war. But despite all its failings, the Russian army still holds a significant swathe of southern Ukraine which is strategically vital.
Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive is seeking to sever—or at least make untenable—this "land corridor" connecting occupied Crimea to western Russia. The operation started later than planned and has proceeded slower than hoped.
Ukrainian casualties are thought to be high, prompting criticism and concern from abroad and—as reported by Newsweek—tensions within President Volodymyr Zelensky's inner circle.
Still, Kyiv's forces have achieved significant local successes. This weekend, reports emerged of Ukraine massing armored units in a bid to exploit a gap in Russian lines near the Zaporizhzhia settlement of Verbove in southeastern Ukraine.
Sustained penetration of Russian lines here may open to way for Ukrainian forces to push on to the strategic hub of Tokmak to the southwest, and perhaps then even on to the city of Melitopol; a major strategic objective for Kyiv. Another key goal is the Sea of Azov city of Berdyansk, 55 miles southwest of Verbove.
The general leading Ukraine's counteroffensive along the southern front, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, told CNN this weekend that his troops around Verbove "have a breakthrough and we continue to advance further."
"Not as fast as it was expected, not like in the movies about the Second World War," he said. "The main thing is not to lose this initiative. And, well, not to lose it in practice, with actions."
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David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
