Ukraine War Maps Show Russia's Two Options for Advancing

The ultimate goals of Russian forces pushing westward from the captured fortress city of Avdiivka remain unclear, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as Kyiv tries to stem the Donetsk Oblast offensive and prepare for a larger summer push.

The Russian grouping that seized Avdiivka in February is now pushing into rural areas west of the city, in what independent think tank ISW has described as a three-pronged drive seeking to penetrate new Ukrainian defensive lines established after the loss of Avdiivka. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

"Russian forces have the opportunity to choose among multiple tactical directions for future offensive drives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future," the ISW wrote in its Monday-evening update.

"Several prominent milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are conducting offensive operations near Keramik to advance toward Arkhanhelske but are also trying to advance west from the Ocheretyne area toward Sokil and southwest toward the Novoprokovske-Novoselivka Persha line," the ISW added.

"ISW continues to assess that the continued Russian stabilization of their salient northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice of either continuing to push west toward its reported operational objective in Pokrovsk or trying to drive northward to conduct possible complementary offensive operations with the Russian effort around Chasiv Yar."

Chasiv Yar has for weeks been a center of fighting on the eastern front. The city sits only six miles east of Bakhmut, which has long been a hotspot on the Donetsk front line, even after its fall to Russian forces in May 2023. Chasiv Yar—now abandoned by almost all of its prewar residents—was a vital staging point for Ukrainian forces fighting in Bakhmut.

The city sits on a hill with commanding views over the surrounding area. This was partly why Ukraine chose to fortify the settlement after Moscow fomented rebellion in the Donbas in 2014. Chasiv Yar was home to an important military hospital and later served as the headquarters for Kyiv's Joint Forces Operation against Russia and its local proxies.

The city is also a gateway to the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, both strategic level objectives for Moscow's forces in their bid to capture all of Donetsk region.

Pokrovsk, on the other hand, is around 26 miles northwest of Avdiivka. It sits at the junction of two major roads heading to the city of Donetsk and to Bakhmut, as well as a railway heading through Avdiivka. A successful drive all the way to Pokrovsk would expose the southern flanks of Chasiv Yar, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.