Ukrainian officials have warned Russian allies that Moscow will not come to their aid in times of crisis, as Armenia struggles against a fresh Azerbaijani assault on the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.
The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry on Tuesday announced the start of an "anti-terrorist" operation in the enclave, which is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory but is controlled by the Armenia-aligned Republic of Artsakh. The offensive follows several months of high tensions related to Baku's blockade of the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia to the disputed territory.
Reports emerged early on Wednesday suggesting that the two sides had agreed to a Russian-proposed ceasefire less than a day after Baku's forces began bombarding Armenian and Artsakh military positions in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenian and Artsakh forces, media reports suggested, have agreed to lay down their arms. Armenian forces are reportedly to leave the enclave and local units are to be disbanded. A meeting between the two nations' representatives will take place on Thursday in Azerbaijan, Armenia's 24News outlet said.
High-ranking Ukrainian officials framed the latest developments as proof of Moscow's inability or unwillingness to assist Armenia, a fellow Collective Security Treaty Organization ally, host of Russian military forces, and a major customer for Russian weapons.
"Russia will abandon Armenia, it will not fight there, it is not a partner for any country," Oleksii Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, said, as quoted by Ukrainska Pravda.
"All the commitments that Russia has made to Armenia are now worth nothing, and it will leave it [Armenia] alone with this problem. This should be understood by all the Central Asian countries that still have direct relations with Russia. It simply abandons its partners, and it does not fulfill its commitments."
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's presidential office, said Russia's stance on the reignited Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is further "proof" that "Russia always betrays everyone."
"Russian 'peacekeeping' or 'membership in the Russian-centered CSTO' is an inevitable stab in the back in a crisis situation," Podolyak added. "Unless, of course, you are willing to delegate part of your agency and sovereignty to Russia."
Leaders in Kyiv are paying close attention to the latest developments, as they continue their counteroffensive in southern Ukraine and deep strikes against Russian military and industrial targets.
"Russia, on the one hand, is trying to keep its troops in Nagorno-Karabakh in order to have leverage over Azerbaijan, and, on the other hand, is trying to provoke conflicts in the Caucasus," Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek.
"Any escalation in the Caucasus might lead to diverting attention of the world from Russian aggression against Ukraine," he said. "Russia is using each opportunity to cause chaos in the world...we are looking at the situation from the perspective [of] how Russia can use it against us."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been clear in his frustration over Russia's failure to protect Yerevan's interests. "Armenia's security architecture was 99.999 percent linked to Russia, including when it came to the procurement of arms and ammunition," Pashinyan told Italian newspaper La Repubblica this month.
"But today we see that Russia itself is in need of weapons, arms and ammunition [for the Ukraine war] and in this situation, it's understandable that even if it wishes so, the Russian Federation cannot meet Armenia's security needs," he said. "This example should demonstrate to us that dependence on just one partner in security matters is a strategic mistake."
Hours after Baku's latest assault began, Armenian protesters converged on the Russian embassy in Yerevan to express their anger at the Kremlin. Some marchers branded Russia "the biggest enemy of Armenia," while one told AFP: "This is all a consequence of Russia's policy. If they don't want to defend [Karabakh], then they must know that there is no place for them here."
Moscow on Tuesday urged "the conflicting parties to immediately stop the bloodshed, stop hostilities and eliminate civilian casualties." Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, dismissed criticism that Moscow had not done enough to stop the renewed fighting, Reuters reported.
Merezhko suggested that Armenia's apparent rapid capitulation might be part of a broader Russian effort to shore up its influence in Yerevan. "It seems like Moscow is trying to punish Pashinyan for the pro-Western steps he has made," the lawmaker said. "Moscow will try to remove him and install a Russian puppet regime in Armenia."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
