Ukraine's Counteroffensive Push South Explained

Ukrainian forces are believed to have launched the next wave of its counteroffensive in the southeast of the country, amid reports of a major mechanized attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast around the towns of Orikhiv and Robotyne. It follows NATO supplying ammunition and equipment to Ukraine, as well as training troops, ahead of a push.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank noted "a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation" on the Zaporizhzhia front that appeared "to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv," north of Robotyne.

The southern front is one of the two main areas of Ukraine's counteroffensive operations that have been ongoing since early June. The other being around Bakhmut in the east of the country. Foreign observers and officials have suggested the actions may be probing operations designed to stretch Russian defenders and identify weak points.

"Western and Ukrainian officials suggested that the attacks towards Robotyne mark an inflection in Ukraine's counteroffensive effort," the ISW said. Inflection in this context refers to a point of potential change in the shape, scale, intensity, of the ongoing operation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, said on Wednesday on Telegram he had met with armed forces commander General Valery Zaluzhny to discuss the offensive. "We believe in our boys," he said. "We continue to work."

Closing the 'Land Corridor'

The southern front had long been touted as a likely location for Ukraine's counteroffensive, which could imperil the "land corridor" of Kremlin-occupied Ukrainian territory that stretches from northern Crimea to the western border of Russia. Gaining that land was one of Moscow's most notable successes during 17 months of hard fighting.

The corridor is also the backbone of the "Novorossiya" (New Russia) project; a historic Russian ambition of conquering a swathe of southern Ukraine.

However, the land corridor is less than 100 miles wide at most points. Ukrainian success on the Zaporizhzhia front could open the door to the liberation of Melitopol, one of the largest Ukrainian cities still held by Moscow's forces and a key hub for command and logistics in the region.

Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor Melitopol, has said that Russian forces have been preparing the city for a siege for several months, all the while trying—and failing—to suppress local partisan and Ukrainian intelligence operations.

A deep advance into the land corridor might also imperil Crimea, the jewel in Putin's neo-tsarist crown. Reaching the Sea of Azov coast would allow Kyiv's forces to cut land supply to, and bombard key military sites on, the peninsula, as well as hindering Russian shipping in the large body of water.

The Ukrainian flag is unlikely to soon be flying again over Melitopol, Berdyansk, or Mariupol, however. Kyiv's forces still need to exploit their reported early counteroffensive gains and break through multiple layers of Russian defenses, complicated by vast minefields and formidable strongpoints.

'Massive Assault'

Reports from local Russian occupying authorities and military bloggers suggested the new Ukrainian push poses a greater threat than previous operations. Vladimir Rogov, a member of the collaboration government in Zaporizhzhia, said on Telegram that the defenders were facing more than 100 armored vehicles, including German-made Leopard tanks and American-made Bradley infantry combat vehicles.

The Russian Defense Ministry called the operation a "massive assault." The ISW reported: "One prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces used more than 80 armored vehicles, and other military bloggers more conservatively claimed that the number was closer to between 30 and 40."

ISW geolocated battlefield images suggested Ukrainian forces had penetrated around 1.5 miles through the Russian lines. "This geolocated point is beyond the forward-most pre-prepared Russian defensive fortifications in this area, indicating that Ukrainian forces managed to penetrate and drive through tactically challenging defensive positions," it said.

"This kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish in pursuit of deeper penetrations," the ISW bulletin read.

The institute also suggested that Ukraine is sending fresher and more experienced troops into the fray. "Ukrainians appear to have rotated fresh forces into this area for the operation, whereas Russian forces remain pinned to the line, apparently without rotation, relief or significant reinforcement in this sector," it said.

"The introduction of fresh Ukrainian reserves to the effort, together with the geometry of Russian defensive lines and the likely degraded overall state of Russian forces in this area, may allow Ukraine to begin pursuing more successful advances south of Orikhiv in the coming weeks."

Newsweek contacted the Russian and Ukrainian Defense Ministries by email to request comment on Thursday.