Nearly half of the 30,000 cities in the United States will face some sort of population decline in the next 80 years, a new study suggests.
This depopulation will hit some areas harder than others, and will likely drive major disruptions to local amenities and economies.
Since the turn of the century, populations have shifted across U.S. cities, driven by a variety of factors.
Firstly, the degree of urbanization, housing density and prior population influence how likely a city's population is to grow or shrink. Higher household incomes can also influence how attractive a city is to new residents.
Climate change, legislation and international immigration also contribute to a city's changing population.
Over the coming decades, this population shift is expected to continue across the U.S., and predicting these trends is important to allow for better city planning and design, as well as to meet local needs around infrastructure and amenities.
Accordingly, researchers from the University of Chicago, Illinois, used U.S. Census Data to predict how city populations are likely to change by the year 2100. They used mathematical models to factor in the impacts of different climate scenarios.
The team reveal that 43 percent of U.S. cities are at risk of experiencing depopulation by 2100, with higher levels seen in the North and Midwest compared to South and Western regions.
Low-income cities are also predicted to be more likely to see shrinking populations, as compared to higher-income cities. However, some larger cities such as Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Buffalo may also see significant depopulation.
These predictions have important implications for the stability of U.S. cities in the future.
While a growing population can strain a city's resources, a shrinking one tends to be accompanied by smaller tax revenues and a lack of financial support for essential services and infrastructure maintenance.
This can make life more difficult for the populations who remain in these shrinking cities.
The researchers hope that their results will help city planners across the U.S. prepare for population shifts and support those cities that experience depopulation.
The full findings of the study are published in the journal Nature Cities.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Pandora Dewan is a Senior Science Reporter at Newsweek based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on science, health ... Read more
