Frigid temperatures could be on the way for the entire U.S. if one weather model is correct.
A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast model suggests that most of the Midwest, the Deep South, the Gulf Coast and the southern Plains could face startlingly cold temperatures as much as 61 degrees below average in January.
Although many meteorologists previously predicted a warmer-than-average winter as the El Niño climate pattern influences winter weather across the southwestern U.S., the NOAA's Climate Forecast System (CFS) model that was published on Wednesday morning suggests the opposite.
The CFS models the interactions between Earth's oceans, land and atmosphere on a global scale, according to the NOAA website. Dozens of scientists produce the model under guidance from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek that the probability of temperatures plunging 60 degrees below normal in some areas in January was highly unlikely, considering the model showed temperature predictions that were three weeks away, but the model does follow an AccuWeather forecast trend.
"We do think that there are going to be some cold pushes across the Great Lakes and Northeast in the second half of January but nothing to that extent," Kines said. "But we do think it will be more seasonable and maybe even a tad below normal for a time."
The model shows the worst of the cold hitting Kentucky at 60 degrees below average. Southern Texas, which normally experiences mild winters, could see temperatures up to 30 degrees below average.
The model also predicts a cold January for California, with temperatures about 14 degrees below average, while an average winter was predicted for Nevada and the northern Plains states.
The model shows the cold temperatures hitting at the end of January, which had many meteorologists doubting the forecast given it was weeks away.
However, other NOAA models show above-average temperatures for much of the U.S. The most recent update for the CFS model shows that the northern Plains states will experience below-average temperatures in January, with temperatures predicted to plunge 15 to 21 degrees below normal for South Dakota, while temperatures for the rest of the U.S. are predicted to be far above normal, particularly for the southern states.
The most recent model is on track with a recent study by the Advances in Atmospheric Sciences journal, which predicted that because of the combined effects of the warming climate and El Niño, there is a 95 percent chance that the global average surface temperature this winter will set a new record high, notably in the U.S. and Eurasia.
Update 12/28/23, 4:08 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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Anna Skinner is a Newsweek senior reporter based in Indianapolis. Her focus is reporting on the climate, environment and weather ... Read more
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