U.S. Rushes to Douse Flames of New Israel-Hezbollah War

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will fly to the Middle East this week as President Joe Biden's administration strives to smother the sparks of a new war along the Israeli-Lebanese border, where months of skirmishes with the Hezbollah militant group threaten to devolve into a new conflict with regional ramifications.

"It is in no one's interest—not in the interest of any country in the region, not in the interest of any country in the world—to see this conflict escalated any further than it already is," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said shortly before Blinken's trip was announced.

America's top diplomat will return to the region following an incendiary week in which a senior Hamas leader—Saleh al-Arouri, a deputy political leader of the group—was killed in a drone strike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, widely believed to have been conducted by Israel. Among Arouri's raft of responsibilities was Hamas relations with Hezbollah and Iran.

Meanwhile, explosions in the southern Iranian city of Kerman that killed nearly 100 people have set Tehran on edge. Iran—already engaging in combative rhetoric with the U.S. and Israel while its network of allies launches attacks on both—has blamed its American and Israeli adversaries for the incident. The Islamic State militant group (ISIS) claimed responsibility on Thursday.

Blinken's visit "is almost the last opportunity to promote any kind of political move" in Lebanon, Michael Milshtein—former head of the IDF Military Intelligence's Department of Palestinian Affairs—told Newsweek. "I'm not optimistic," he added.

Sliding Into War

The Iranian-aligned Hezbollah militia holds sway over Lebanon's political landscape and is in de facto control of the southern portion of the country, including the border with Israel.

Saleh's killing is the first suspected Israeli assassination operation in Lebanon since 2013, a powerful signal underscoring recent warnings from Israeli officials that they will no longer tolerate Hezbollah presence and activity along the shared frontier.

Israel does not confirm or deny involvement in targeted killings or other covert operations. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesperson's Unit declined to comment on its involvement when contacted by Newsweek.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has vowed that the group "will not be silent" following Saleh's killing.

"I do not think Nasrallah will give up after this visit, and after all the calming efforts of the American administration, I think that it will be quite clear that a military move is needed," said Milshtein, who is working at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.

"There is relatively broad agreement among politicians, the military, and the public in Israel that if Nasrallah will not be more flexible, if he will not give up, then it will be necessary to promote a military move in order to improve the situation in the north."

Hamas' October 7 infiltration attack into southern Israel has birthed a new era of security consciousness in the country. The incident has sharpened Israeli demands that Hezbollah adhere to the 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution prohibiting the group's presence south of the Litani River, some 18 miles north of the Israeli border.

"The situation in the north must be changed," Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said in December. "And it will change. If Hezbollah agrees to change things via diplomacy, very good. But I don't believe it will."

Nasrallah has so far been walking a tightrope between rhetorical and practical support for Hamas' war against Israel while also seeking to avoid a broader confrontation that might erode Hezbollah's powerful and lucrative position in Lebanon.

"That dilemma is becoming tougher," Milshtein said following the assassination of Saleh. "I do think that they will try—maybe not immediately, maybe within days or weeks—to respond, but he will attempt not to begin a new war in Lebanon," he added.

"He learned in 2006 that you can begin escalation, but you never know how it will end," Milshtein said, referring to the war between Israel and Hezbollah sparked by a cross-border raid by the militant group.

While Israel pushes for Hezbollah adherence to the 2006 UN resolution, "they're going to continue to take kinetic actions against sites in Lebanon," Michael Allen—who served as special assistant to President George W. Bush and the senior director at the National Security Council—told Newsweek.

Saleh's role as running liaison with Hezbollah and Iran is "interesting," added Allen, who is the managing director of the Beacon Global Strategy strategic advisory firm. "The targeting is increasingly going to move into Lebanon, and—if the Israelis don't get some sort of reassurance that Hezbollah is going to move north—Hezbollah leaders might soon be on the target set."

U.S. Firefighting

Biden already has his hands full in the Middle East. The U.S. is leading the effort to subdue the Houthi militia's Red Sea campaign from war-torn Yemen, while American forces trade tit-for-tat strikes with a range of Tehran-linked armed groups in Syria and Iraq.

"We remain incredibly concerned, as we have been from the outset of this conflict, about the risk of the conflict spreading into other fronts, both inside Israel, whether it be in the north or whether it be in the West Bank, or outside of Israel in other countries in the region," Miller said on Wednesday.

The U.S. has repeatedly urged Israel not to stoke the flames of new confrontations. A National Security Council spokesperson told Newsweek last month that Biden "has made clear that we do not support the conflict expanding into Lebanon. From the beginning, his message to any actor seeking to exploit the situation has been clear: Don't."

Hezbollah has been in the Israeli crosshairs since October 7, per a report by The Wall Street Journal published in late December. Soon after the attack, Biden convinced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on plans to hit the Lebanese group.

"This was a live issue for the security cabinet in Israel," Allen said. "I think what we're seeing is that Bibi is increasingly saying to himself, 'How can I, in the long sweep of history, be seen as laying down on the Hezbollah threat after having just dealt with Hamas?'" Allen added, referring to Netanyahu by his commonly used childhood nickname.

"Now's the time to do it, when you have public support for it because it's so soon after the terrorist attack. I think that's where Bibi is.

"I do still think that the cornerstone of their strategy is that the United States is their protector, their best friend and ally. Bibi can't forfeit that, he can't take so many actions such that that comes into question. But at the same time, I feel he thinks he has a little bit more room to do what he thinks he needs to do in Lebanon."