The shrinking of Arctic sea ice could impact daily weather patterns across the United States, a new study has found.
The study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at Penn State University analyzed climate models to figure out how sea ice loss will contribute to weather patterns in the future.
Arctic sea ice usually fluctuates naturally with the seasons, with less in the summer and more in the winter.
However, in recent years, the ice in both the winter and summer months has been shrinking. Climate change is said by many to be the main driver of this. According to the World Wildlife Fund, Arctic sea ice has decreased at a rate of around 13 percent per decade.
Over the past three decades, the thickest ice has decreased by 95 percent, it reports. Previous estimates state that if emissions continue to rise, the Arctic could have no ice by 2040.
The lack of sea ice will have a variety of implications for the rest of the world, but this most recent study reports that decreased ice could cause cold-weather events to be warmer. From their models the researchers found that the less sea ice, the more the effects of these cold weather events were de-amplified.
"The Arctic in general is the source of cold air for us when we have these really cold events," Melissa Gervais, assistant professor in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State and lead author of the study, said in a statement.
"As warming continues, we know that the Arctic is going to be less cold. What this work shows us is that the loss of sea ice also changes weather patterns that bring cold air to the middle latitudes. So, warming both depletes your source of cold air and makes it harder to transport."
The Arctic sea ice acts as an insulator for the ocean, trapping heat in warmer water. But once that ice depletes, the heat escapes the ocean and enters the atmosphere. This subsequently causes less cold air to move to other areas like North America.
To look at weather impact more closely, researchers ran their climate model under two different scenarios, a summary of the study reported. One scenario had ice levels from the 1980s and the 1990s, while the other correlates with sea ice levels expected by the end of this century.
They found that under current sea ice conditions, strong cold spells reached 29 degrees Fahrenheit in North America, while under conditions with less ice, conditions warmed drastically.
"Our research allowed us to dig a little bit deeper into what is going on. We were able to see that in addition to the impact of Arctic amplification, there also is an impact on the actual circulation or flow in the atmosphere," Gervais said.
"Without using this machine learning method, we would not have been able to really robustly understand the processes involved," she said.
"For studies like this, where we're using a large volume of climate model simulations, we can't find these patterns by hand. We found that when we lose sea ice, not only is that anomaly reduced, but it also actually becomes a warm pattern. So, the same pattern in the upper atmosphere is now actually bringing warmer temperatures near the surface."
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about Arctic ice? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Robyn White is a Newsweek Nature Reporter based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on wildlife, science and the ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
