Putin's NYE Address Shows He's Unwilling To Find Peaceful Solution: ISW

Russian President Vladimir Putin's New Year's Eve address shows he "remains unwilling" to consider a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine, according to a U.S. think tank.

Putin's annual address illustrated that he "is uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space and remains focused on justifying the war and its costs to his people" 10 months after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its most recent report.

In a nine-minute video shown on television as each Russian time zone region counted down the final minutes of 2022 on Saturday, Putin denounced the West for aggression and accused the countries of trying to use the conflict in Ukraine to undermine Russia.

Putin said 2022 was "a year of difficult, necessary decisions, of important steps towards gaining the full sovereignty of Russia and the powerful consolidation of our society."

He added that Russia's "sovereign, independent, and secure future depends only on us, on our strength and determination."

He also said defending the Motherland "is our sacred duty to our ancestors and descendants."

The ISW said the speech continued Putin's "rhetorical claims not only that Russia has historical rights to Ukraine, but also that Russia's independence and sovereignty depend on regaining control of Ukraine."

Putin "thereby attempts to cast victory in the war as essential to Russia's continued existence as an independent state," it said.

Such comments were likely meant to justify the costly war as well as appeal to the ultra-nationalist pro-war community, the ISW wrote.

But they also indicate that Putin "remains unwilling to contemplate a meaningful peaceful resolution of the war he began other than on terms he dictates to Ukraine and the West."

The report added that the Russian leader is "unlikely to accept any lesser outcome: unless Ukraine, with the help of Western allies, is able to inflict further large-scale defeats on Russian forces and liberate much more of its territory.

Putin delivered the address from the headquarters of the Southern Military District, with uniformed military personnel behind him, "as part of an ongoing effort to portray himself as an effective wartime leader actively in control of the war effort," the ISW wrote.

He did not use the speech to make any announcement about how Russian forces intend to reverse setbacks in Ukraine and achieve his goals, the report noted.

"The banality of most of the speech is consistent with previous ISW assessments that Vladimir Putin may have postponed his annual address to the Russian Federation Assembly because he was uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space amidst increasing criticism of his conduct of the war," it said.

Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and creator and co-host of the Kremlin File podcast series, told Newsweek that Putin is "preparing Russians for a long war from what was supposed to be a three-day operation."

"This was a typical Soviet speech filled with the sacrifices Russians must make to address an 'existential threat to the motherland,'" Lautman said.

"The issue is there is no existential threat to Russia, Putin is out of options, and his reign will soon come to an end. The economy is suffering, plans for full-scale mobilization will fail, and his grip on power is fading as evidenced with the public fractures on display between various agencies, regions and power-hungry actors such as [Yevgeny] Prigozhin. Russians aren't concerned with the atrocities the military is committing in Ukraine but also do not want to serve as cannon fodder on the frontlines in Ukraine."

Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.

Update 1/2/23, 5:44 a.m ET: This article has been updated with comment from Olga Lautman.