Lukashenko Using Wagner Group to Squeeze Putin—ISW

Alexander Lukashenko used Vladimir Putin's fears about the Wagner Group as leverage during talks between the Belarusian and Russian leaders this week.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) independent think tank said it showed Putin's anxiety about the fate of the mercenary group headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin. Wagner staged a mutiny on June 24 in which the mercenaries seized military facilities in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and marched to Moscow.

Lukashenko's one-day trip to St. Petersburg started on Sunday and was extended to three days. Putin told the Belarusian leader that he was prepared to adjust his schedule to talk in more detail, according to the BBC's Russian Service.

However, one expert told Newsweek that the meeting was "a mere show intended to frighten and provoke the West. "

The Russian news Telegram channel Brief said that the Wagner Group was the most important topic of the meeting. Lukashenko also asked Putin for more economic assistance through the Union State defense and integration agreement between the countries. The channel added that Putin wanted Minsk to be more involved in his invasion of Ukraine.

Hanna Liubakova, a journalist from the Belarusian capital Minsk, and non-resident fellow with U.S. think tank The Atlantic Council, said that Lukashenko is looking to bolster his standing as a regional player.

"Putin shares similar goals with Lukashenko in wanting to demonstrate strength and control, especially in response to Prigozhin's mutiny," she told Newsweek.

She believed that Lukashenko's actions could also be interpreted as him seeking more significant support from Putin for his role as a mediator.

"By mentioning the Wagner mercenaries' desire to head westward and the pressure he feels, Lukashenko might be trying to emphasize the significance of his position and the potential implications if he lost control of the situation."

This means that the authoritarian Belarusian leader "could be using the presence of Wagner mercenaries as leverage to demand more tangible backing from Putin. This could involve additional resources and economic support."

"The plot orchestrated by Lukashenko and Putin in St. Petersburg appears to be a mere show intended to frighten and provoke the West once again," she added.

So far, Lukashenko has not played a direct role in the war in Ukraine, although, as Putin's closest ally, he has allowed Belarusian territory to be used as a staging post.

Nuclear weapons have also been transferred from Russia to Belarus. Experts have said that the unpopularity among Belarusians of Putin's invasion could make Lukashenko vulnerable if he were to become more involved in Ukraine. Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Belarusian foreign ministries by email for comment.

"Putin's decision to prolong his meeting with Lukashenko likely shows Putin's continued concerns about Wagner, which it appears that Lukashenko did not allay," the ISW said on Tuesday.

"Lukashenko likely seeks to leverage his power over the Wagner Group to gain concessions from Putin," the ISW added. These would include favorable conditions in Belarusian-Russian relations and deflecting Putin's demands for more support for his war.

The deal that Prigozhin struck to end last month's mutiny, which was reportedly brokered by Lukashenko, included agreeing an exile for him and his troops to Belarus. There are likely to be up to 4,000 Wagner fighters in the country, according to the Belarusian opposition in exile, as previously reported by Newsweek.

Brief said that camps built to accommodate Wagner troops were guarded and controlled by the Belarusian Defense Ministry and its security services, the KGB.

The outlet added that Lukashenko is not ready to expand the freedoms of Prigozhin in Belarus for fear that the Wagner Group might seize power.

Update 07/26/23, 9:04 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Hanna Liubakova.